The mood in Egypt and the threat of Palestinian displacement

The Palestinian issue has reignited Egyptian politics. Since Trump proposed the plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai, it has become the main preoccupation of the Egyptian public and the most important topic of conversation, in café discussions among friends, on social media, in the workplaces and at school.

This article is an abridged translation of an article published at marxy.com. The full text in Arabic is available here.

The Palestinian issue has always been a key element in Egyptian politics, both for the rulers and the ruled, and attempts to separate the Palestinian issue from the situation in Egypt have always failed.

There has indeed been a palpable anger among the Egyptian masses over the genocidal campaign that the criminal Zionist war machine has unleashed on the Palestinian people over the past 15 months. There was also frustration mixed with anger over the Egyptian regime's betrayal of the Palestinians and complicity in this massacre. It closed the Rafah crossing, acquiesced to the Zionists' conditions regarding the entry of aid into Gaza, allowed Israel’s occupation of the Rafah crossing from the Palestinian side, and has suppressed Egyptian solidarity with the Palestinian people.

Over the past months, the regime has been trying to balance itself between the anger of the masses on the one hand and the anger of the US and Israel on the other. But now that the issue of Palestinian displacement has arisen, things have taken a different turn.

We are now witnessing a wave of cheap nationalist propaganda by the ruling class, in an attempt to portray Sisi as a defender of the Palestinian cause and Egyptian national sovereignty. It is pointless to engage in a cockfight with the propaganda that tries to portray Sisi as the saviour, the successor of Abdel Nasser, and perhaps even the successor of Saladin, who will defeat the new Crusaders in the modern battle of Hattin and liberate Jerusalem. This is hysterical propaganda that does nothing to solve the problems facing the masses. What is important from our point of view is to examine the fundamental question: is it true that the capitalist ruling class in Egypt and its regime are defending the Palestinian cause and Egyptian national sovereignty?

The hypocrisy of Egyptian capitalism

The Egyptian authoritarian capitalist regime, both historically and today, views the Palestinian cause primarily in terms of its influence and connection to the Egyptian masses. This is always expressed in terms of Egypt's geopolitical importance. The siege on the Gaza Strip is tightened when the regime wants to curry favour with the Americans and Zionists, and the grip on the Gaza Strip is loosened when they are at odds.

The Egyptian regime has participated in the Zionist state’s vicious siege of Gaza since Israel's exit from the strip in 2005 / Image: Al Jazeera English, Wikimedia Commons

Any talk by the capitalist ruling class and its military regime of allegedly championing the Palestinian cause is a shameless claim that is belied by historical facts. The Egyptian ruling class has a long history of betraying the Palestinian cause while making sure to appear as the defender of the Palestinian people; from Nasser's inclination towards the Rogers Plan and the completion of an Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement by Sadat at Camp David; to trading with the Zionist state under the auspices of the United States; to acting as a border guard for the Zionist state; to exporting and now importing gas from Israel.

In this way, the Egyptian regime has participated in the Zionist state’s vicious siege of Gaza since Israel's exit from the strip in 2005. The Egyptian and Zionist regimes have turned Gaza into the largest open-air prison in the world for more than two million Palestinians. The Zionist regime is directly responsible for the siege of Gaza, but the Egyptian regime is no less criminal, given that Gaza's borders are surrounded by Israeli forces on all sides and the Egyptian border is Gaza's only outlet to the world.

When Sisi rode his tank to power, he followed the same path. In general, official Egyptian-Israeli relations have never been closer and more stable than under Sisi. Since 2013, the Sisi regime has waged a hysterical propaganda campaign against the Palestinians and their cause, attempting to stigmatise the entire population of the Gaza Strip as terrorists and disconnect the Egyptian public from the Palestinian cause.

Over time, however, Egypt's official stance on Hamas had shifted, with its cooperation alongside the Egyptian army in its war against ISIS in Sinai. Hamas also released a cryptic announcement in 2017 saying that it had severed organisational ties with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Nonetheless, the regime's perception of Hamas as a troublemaker has continued until now.

The most recent criminal aggression against Gaza has upended the whole equation for Egypt's ruling class. The dictator can no longer promote cosy peace with Israel when the masses see their brothers and sisters in Gaza being killed by the thousands and facing the increasing risk of ethnic cleansing. There is a general sense of helplessness, frustration, and anger. Anti-Israel and anti-American sentiment is returning to centre stage in a way we have not seen in many years.

The role of the Abdel Fattah al-Sisi regime was evident with the closure of the Rafah crossing to travellers and the injured at the beginning of the criminal Zionist invasion of the Gaza Strip after 7 October 2023. Sisi took tens of thousands of dollars in royalties from Palestinians who wanted to leave through the Rafah crossing at the beginning of the genocide, with the help of the smuggler, former drug dealer, current businessman and ‘Godfather’ of Sinai and its tribes, Ibrahim al-Argani. This was exposed by many Palestinians who left via the Rafah crossing at the beginning of the war, and by the war criminal Netanyahu when he openly said: “The rich in Gaza paid bribes to the Egyptian border guards in order to leave.”

Egypt's degenerate military dictatorship has now closed the crossing to travellers under the pretext of fighting displacement. In reality, the regime has already made a fortune from these payments from desperate people leaving Gaza.

But it is not only the authorities that are involved in profiting at the expense of the Palestinian people; the entire capitalist ruling class in Egypt is mired in this blood and treachery. The total value of trade between Egypt and Israel during the first six months of 2024 reached $246.6 million, a 53 percent increase from before the war. The smell of Palestinian blood has fuelled these criminals’ appetite for profit.

More than 300 Egyptian companies have made huge profits by trading with the Zionist state at a time when the Palestinian people were being killed by the most aggressive military machine in the region.

Not only that, but we saw with our own eyes the video of an Israeli warship crossing the Suez Canal on 2 November 2024, amidst the boos and curses of Egyptian passersby. One of them commented: “Are Egypt and Israel working together?” The regime justified this at the time with the freedom of navigation agreements… concluded under the Ottoman Empire in 1888! As if the principle of freedom of navigation applies only to powerful aggressors like the Zionists, whereas oppressed peoples, such as the Palestinians, must be subject to siege and bombardment while the rich profit at their expense. This came days after a cargo ship docked in Alexandria harbour, which was suspected of being loaded with military materials on their way to Israel – something the regime denied at the time.

Scandalously, the regime also tolerated Israel’s ‘accidental’ bombing of an Egyptian border position on 22 October 2023. It is still not known how many people were killed or injured as a result. The Camp David Accord itself was violated by Israel’s occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing on the Palestinian side. What national sovereignty are the regime and its followers claiming to defend?

The Egyptian capitalist regime is no longer just complicit in the blockade of Palestine – as they have been since the establishment of the republic in 1952. It is an essential partner in the Zionist genocide against the Palestinian people.

Is the Egyptian regime in favour of displacement?

Now we must ask ourselves a clear question: is the Egyptian regime in favour of the displacement of the Palestinians from Gaza? No, of course not. But the regime’s motives for rejecting displacement are completely different from those of the masses and us communists.

The Egyptian regime is subservient and humble to US and Israeli imperialism / Image: public domain

The regime does not reject displacement for humanitarian reasons, as it now claims, but simply because it does not suit its interests. The regime knows that implementing the displacement plan would inflame the situation at home, and it is highly likely that the resulting anger would pose an existential threat to the regime.

It is true that the Egyptian regime is subservient and humble to US and Israeli imperialism. But it is subservient and humble for its own good – and for the billions of dollars in military aid with which US imperialism props up the regime – not for love of its own humiliation. The displacement of the Palestinian people into Egypt would mean the end of the regime, something it cannot voluntarily agree to. 

Some political activists – including a layer of the left – burned out and lost in the wilds of Egyptian politics, imagine the regime to be made up of malicious demons. As a result, they are unable to explain anything when the regime behaves in a way that does not immediately seem to reflect their absolute evil. 

On the contrary, the regime is ultimately driven by its own class and personal interests. We do not need to invent lies and fabricate narratives to expose the filth and treachery of the capitalist ruling class and its dictatorial regime in Egypt. We simply need to tell the truth. The Egyptian regime is against displacement because it is aware of the potential for a social explosion.

The mood inside Egypt

On 3 June 2023, – before 7 October – an Egyptian soldier named Mohammed Salah crossed the Egyptian-Israeli border and killed at least three Israeli soldiers, before losing his own life in the clash. One day after the 7 October operation, an Egyptian police officer opened fire on a group of Israeli tourists in Alexandria, killing two Israelis and an Egyptian tour guide and wounding another, before he too was killed in the clash. 

In March 2024, a police officer stood on one of the largest billboards in Alexandria, took off his uniform and chanted: “Sisi is a traitor and an agent [of Israel].” This was just days after American soldier Aaron Bushnell set himself on fire to protest US imperialism’s support for the Israeli genocide in Gaza. In May 2024, Egyptian soldiers opened fire on Israeli soldiers occupying the Rafah crossing on the Palestinian side, sparking an armed clash in which one Egyptian soldier was killed and several others were injured.

These incidents speak volumes about the depth of anger and frustration among the masses. In two cases, these individuals were conscripts, the sons of poor workers and peasants, who were forced by compulsory conscription to assist Zionist soldiers. In two other cases, these were serving police officers, one of the most reactionary layers in Egyptian society. On top of this, there is all the accumulated anger of the working class and revolutionary youth, which the regime is well aware of.

This is why Sisi has tried to control the Egyptian masses since the beginning of Israel’s invasion through a combination of repression and superficial hostility to Israel. At the same time, however, he has undermined the development of a mass movement, knowing that it would inevitably backfire on him. He allowed several solidarity demonstrations to take place at the beginning of the war, but these quickly turned against him as well as against the Zionists. He then banned all manifestations of solidarity with Palestine until he was fully assured that they were under his control, whilst persecuting dozens of young people who are still in prison today for showing their solidarity.

The implications of displacement

The Egyptian regime is extremely concerned about Israel's further expansion and knows that if Israel is allowed to seize territory, it will not be long before Egypt is on the chopping block. It also knows very well that the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to the Sinai is the beginning of the story, not the end. Palestinians entering Egypt would not only be filled with anger and hatred against Israel, but also against the Egyptian regime that allowed their displacement. These Palestinians would arrive with all their combat experience and weaponry, and would soon rebuild their infrastructure in the vast Sinai desert, where they would be able to launch attacks on Israel.

Sisi warned that the displacement of Palestinians to the Sinai would push Egypt back into confrontation with Israel / Image: public domain

Any attempt to deal with this would embroil the Egyptian regime in a direct confrontation either with the Palestinians or with Israel, two possibilities that the ruling class and its regime are equally unwilling to consider due to the high risk involved. Sisi understood this from the first day of the war, when he said in a conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 18 October 2023:

“The transfer of Palestinian citizens from the Gaza Strip to the Sinai is simply the transfer of the idea of resistance, the idea of fighting, from the Gaza Strip to the Sinai. Thus the Sinai would become the base for launching operations against Israel, in which case Israel would have the right to defend itself and its national security, and as part of its response it would deal with Egypt and strike Egyptian territory.”

Sisi warned that the displacement of Palestinians to the Sinai would push Egypt back into confrontation with Israel, and he is right to do so. This is precisely what happened with the Palestinian refugee camps in Jordan and Lebanon – experiences that Sisi certainly has in mind.

Future prospects

The situation has become highly sensitive for the regime. It is resisting Trump's pressure for displacement with all its might. In this, it seems to be succeeding, at least for now. 

In the past few years, the relative decline of US imperialism has provided some room for manoeuvre for regional powers. Such powers are no longer necessarily subject to all of US imperialism’s demands, especially when these demands are against the interests of the local ruling class, and are put forward with such brazenness that it would be fatal for these regimes to submit to them in front of the masses.

The Egyptian regime is stepping up its rhetoric against displacement and even threatening to overturn the Camp David Accords – Israel’s most important peace treaty – in an attempt to send a message to US imperialism that displacement means disrupting the entire region.

This is a central question. If the current displacement plan fails – and this is a possibility – we may witness a period of relative stabilisation for the ruling military dictatorship and the temporary culmination of the recent period, in which the labour movement was able to wage explicitly political struggles.

The regime is now using the pressure from US imperialism to promote itself as the protector of the masses, national sovereignty, and a fighter against Western hegemony and Palestinian displacement. In doing so, it aims to create ‘national unity’ within Egypt. In fact, Trump's brazen presentation of the displacement plan and the regime's opposition to it have increased public support for the regime.

This rhetoric resonates with the masses because of their natural hatred of US and Israeli imperialism, especially in the absence of any independent revolutionary perspective. The more the imperialists demand Palestinian displacement, the more the masses will view the military dictatorship as the lesser of two evils in the face of the horrors of imperialist intervention and regional turmoil.

However, if US and Israeli imperialism succeeds in subduing the military dictatorship in Egypt and implementing the displacement scheme, the fig leaf covering the rotten regime will fall away. This has the potential to open up a revolutionary situation in Egypt, in which the regime would be very likely to fall. This would be the straw that breaks the camel's back, as the masses are already burdened with poverty, oppression and frustration. The Palestinian issue has the potential to become a reference point for all the economic, social and political contradictions that have been building up under the surface for the past ten years.

The tasks of the communists

The role of revolutionary communists at this moment is to expose the regime's lies and claims about supporting the Palestinian cause and to dispel all illusions of national sovereignty. We must immunise ourselves against the virus of ‘national unity’ that always infects Nasserists, nationalists, and reformists. Rather, we must not lose our balance and remain connected to the working class as it really is and not as we wish it were.

There is a deep desire among the working masses in Egypt to support the Palestinian people, but this is shackled by the ruling military dictatorship and the interests of rotten Egyptian capitalism, which is linked by thousands of threads to US and Israeli imperialism.

The key to the liberation of Palestine is the victory of the socialist revolution in an important country like Egypt and Jordan, or in an imperialist country like the United States and Britain. This would change the balance of power in favour of the Palestinian people for the first time since the Nakba.

If there had been a strong revolutionary communist party in Egypt, the situation would have been completely different. Therefore, the most important and urgent task for all revolutionaries and communists in Egypt is to build a party on the basis of Marxist theory. There is no alternative to the hard work of building the revolutionary communist party that will be able to change the nature of the class struggle in Egypt and the region forever. We invite you to join us in this task!