Romania: victory of establishment candidate will only deepen the crisis

After six months of political crisis, electoral charades, and mass disillusionment with the establishment that followed the cancellation of December’s election results, Romanians finally elected a new president on 18 May. Nicușor Dan, the pro-EU liberal candidate and mayor of Bucharest, was elected with 56.6 percent of the vote in the second round, defeating the anti-establishment, nationalist candidate George Simion.

The Romanian ruling class and the European establishment have let out a sigh of relief at these results. They hope that it will mean a return to ‘business as usual’ in Romanian politics after the political chaos it has faced over the last few months. The contrary will prove the case.

For the last six months, the Romanian ruling class, backed by the EU, has strained every nerve to ensure that a politician they could trust came to power. When Georgescu – someone they didn’t like – won, they annulled the election. When he tried to run again, they arrested and banned him. Once his replacement threatened to win, nine parties buried their differences to back one liberal champion: Nicușor Dan. Now, after a deafening media campaign – and with the help of the EU – their man has scraped into power.

But it has come at a great cost. In the process, they have totally exposed what ‘democracy’ means for the rulers of Romania and Europe – elections are all well and good, so long as you vote for the person they want you to!

Nicușor Dan’s victory

The result of the second round came as a surprising relief for the ruling class. Whereas Georgescu had won with 22.9 percent of the vote in the first round in November, George Simion, standing for the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) as the Georgescu-backed candidate, almost doubled this and won his first round with a sweeping 40.9 percent.

The two main liberal candidates – Nicușor Dan, and Crin Antonescu who was supported by both the National Liberals and the Social Democrats – only got around 20 percent each. However, Antonescu and nine (!) other liberal candidates rallied around Nicușor Dan for the second round, allowing him to overtake Simion. This is what ‘pluralist’ democracy looks like in Romania, where over ten different candidates run on the same exact platform.

This surprise result was met with jubilation by the liberal mouthpieces of the European ruling class. “A vote for stability and the West”, proclaimed The Guardian. European leaders bragged of a “historic victory” and that “Romania has chosen Europe”. The centre has held against the intrigues of ‘far-right’ populists and Putin-puppets, they say. 

The liberals in Romania and across Europe are breathing a sigh of relief. They 'won' the election... it only took the annulment of the first round last year, the arrest and debarring of Georgescu (pictured) and an unholy alliance of 10 liberal candidates / Image: fair use

But the more sober strategists of the ruling class understand that beyond this superficial victory lies a very unstable future. This is not only true of Romania, but also Portugal, which held its election on the same day. Here too, the right-wing populist candidate was narrowly defeated. But, as Dimitar Bechev from the think tank Carnegie Europe stated:

“This time we pulled it off, but what about next time? You probably have a lot of voters that are swinging back and forth. We give another chance to somebody else on the liberal side and of course he fails, and with all the discontent, Simion becomes even stronger.”

Elections are only a partial and very incomplete picture of the mood in society. Despite their defeat, the anti-establishment anger that led to the rise of Georgescu and Simion has not gone away – in fact, it has grown even greater in response to the shameless anti-democratic manoeuvres of the regime. As such, the establishment has come away from this victory with a deep sense of foreboding and anxiety, knowing that a reckoning awaits them.

The right-wing populists

The sudden rise of Calin Georgescu and his anti-NATO, anti-Ukraine war platform last November sent shockwaves through Romania’s political establishment. After Georgescu won the first round of the elections in November, the result was undemocratically annulled by the courts under the pretext of ‘Russian foreign interference’. 

Very quickly after this, George Simion and his Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) hitched their wagon to Georgescu, forming a Georgescu-led populist coalition for the rescheduled election. 

The liberals will now rule, and they will be tasked with eliminating an enormous budget deficit at the expense of the working class. Theirs will be the most unpopular government in modern Romanian history, and will only strengthen another Georgescu (left), Simion (right) or some other populist figure at the next election / Image: AUR

Simion and Georgescu are political outsiders who have ridden a wave of popular anger. This anger is bubbling up as a result of the deteriorating living conditions of millions of Romanians. In particular, there is enormous rage developing against the establishment pro-EU parties, against the EU itself, and against the war in Ukraine. Their rise in popularity reflects the failure of the ruling class and its political agents to address the real problems facing the working class.

The establishment vehemently attacked Georgescu and placed numerous barriers in the way of him standing in the rescheduled election. Eventually, in March, he was arrested in the street and barred from standing altogether. Georgescu selected Simion as his stand-in candidate, whose success in the (re-run) first round in May was based entirely on providing an outlet for Georgescu’s angry base.

But, from the start, Simion was at pains to differentiate himself from Georgescu. Whereas Georgescu terrified Europe by threatening to pull out of NATO and the EU, Simion declared that Romania would remain in both. Whereas Georgescu called Putin a “patriot” and a role model, Simion called for a united front against the Russian “threat”.

Throughout the campaign, Simion sought to present himself as a more ‘electable’ and ‘dependable’ candidate. Like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who Simion cited as his model, he aimed to pose as a populist that the establishment could work with.  This made him reasonable enough for the establishment to allow him to stand, whereas Georgescu had to be denounced and prevented from standing at any cost.

Nonetheless, even if somewhat ‘moderated’, the unstable, ‘Romania first’ policy of Simion did present a serious threat to the Romanian and European establishment. He positioned himself as a pro-Trump candidate, seeking to align Romania with the US – which would include ending all support for the Ukraine war – against the “new globalist order” of the EU. As he said in one speech:

“No longer having American troops in Romania seems dangerous to me. And I am the only candidate that can stop them from leaving. We are ideologically aligned with the MAGA movement.”

Another victory for a right-wing populist in Europe would’ve meant the further fragmentation of the EU, as the bloc faces defeat in Ukraine and abandonment by the US. For this reason, Simion and AUR were denounced as “tools of Russia”, and the establishment mobilised all of their media and institutions in favour of Nicușor and other pro-European liberal candidates.

Nicușor Dan and foreign interference

Against Simion, the establishment gathered around Nicușor Dan, who stood for nothing except being the ‘lesser evil’ candidate. The Romanian and European media went into overdrive to sing praises for the ‘sensible’ pro-European, pro-NATO, foreign-educated, Olympic Gold-winning mathematician standing to protect Romania from the coarse football hooligan who ‘serves Russia’. Nicușor’s support is also partly based on his image as the ‘anti-corruption’ mayor of Bucharest, who stood outside all of the main establishment parties.

The establishment has used ‘Russian Interference’ as an excuse for all of their attacks against their political opponents. But if this election reveals anything, it is that interference did take place… from the European side in support of Nicușor!

Macron and Donald Tusk both came out loudly in support of Nicușor. Scandalously, Telegram founder Pavel Durov claims that he was pressured by French intelligence services to ban populist voices during the election period, which comes in addition to online censorship of AUR supporters. These are the ‘democratic freedoms’ that the EU promotes – to support and vote for any candidate, so long as they are subservient to the European establishment.

The European ruling class fears that the victory of a right-wing populist anywhere would increase the destabilisation of Europe and give strength to the right-wing populists in their own countries. 

It is also pushing Romania – a NATO country and a key supplier of weapons for neighbouring Ukraine – into the wider militarisation drive in Europe, and to reach its defence spending target of 3 percent through austerity and attacks on the working class. A victory for the populists would have called this all into question, whereas Nicușor will loyally submit.

But the main job they want carried out by Nicușor is to massively attack the working class. The European Union is heavily pressuring Romania to reduce its budget deficit – the largest in the EU, at 9 percent of GDP – under threat of withholding EU funds.

Nicușor’s ‘pro-European’ programme simply means more EU-imposed austerity and state spending cuts, a recipe for worsening the biggest problems in the country –  unemployment, emigration and crumbling public infrastructure. Under Nicușor’s presidency, the establishment will emerge more discredited and irredeemable in the eyes of millions of ordinary workers as those who voted for him learn the true cost of the ‘sensible’ liberal European road.

Where is Romania going?

Ultimately, the establishment campaign around Nicușor succeeded. Nonetheless, Nicușor Dan’s presidency will mark a new, turbulent and crisis-ridden period in Romania. His complete subservience to the EU’s programme of austerity and cuts, which attack the workers, the poorest and most vulnerable layers in society, will make him the most hated politician in the country. In these conditions, Georgescu, Simion or any figure who is able to give a voice to the well-founded, desperate hatred that is brewing against the powers that be, will gain considerable support due to their demagogic attacks on the establishment.

The programme of populists like Simion is a reactionary muddle, which attempts to connect to the anger of the poor with promises of nationalisation and cheap homes, while simultaneously promising the Romanian ruling class the cuts and austerity they demand. For now, the tide of support is turning increasingly in their favour. But ultimately, these right-wing populists will emerge discredited when they fail to realise the impossible illusions they have sown.

On the other hand, a section of youth in Romania, disgusted by the nationalist and xenophobic bile spewed by the populists, have turned to ‘lesser evilism’ and a vote for pro-European candidates. The surge of the youth vote, specifically university students, was a factor behind Nicușor’s victory. These illusions are dangerous. Nicușor and his ilk are just as reactionary as the populists on all issues, and they will only act to turn Romania into a servant of EU interests, at a time when the crisis of European capitalism will leave them with none of the crumbs of the ‘single market’.

As we have stated before, an important factor behind the rise of these populists and their ‘lesser evil’ counterweights is the complete absence of a significant force on the left in Romania. The Social Democrats share the same programme (and candidates) as the National Liberals!

This absence makes the prospect of the immediate rise of a left current more remote. But with the anger in society reaching a boiling point, it must eventually find an expression. It is likely that we will see the emergence of spontaneous, radical movements first on the street rather than on the political front.

The anger, disgust, disillusionment and hatred towards the establishment from large sections of workers and youth will reach a fever pitch in the coming period. Over Romania’s border, the Serbian students are leading a mass movement of workers and youth against their government that has reached revolutionary proportions. Not too far away, Greece and Turkey have also seen explosive movements that have brought millions onto the streets.

These movements are the music of Romania’s future. With European capitalism in tatters, Romania will be one of the peripheral EU countries forced to shoulder the costs of the crisis. Poverty, unemployment, migration, and cuts will only worsen in the period ahead. The workers, the poor and the youth will be forced to enter the fray in an explosive fashion to try and solve their most basic problems.

In order to do this, the Romanian workers and youth need a programme that breaks with capitalism and Romania's subservience to the EU. But for the Romanian workers to embark on the successful revolutionary transformation of society, it will take hard-earned experience in struggle, but also a revolutionary party and leadership.