Portuguese elections: a political earthquake

Chega was the big winner on election night in Portugal. Although the results are inconclusive and there is no prospect of a stable government, some conclusions can already be drawn.

[Originally published in Portuguese at comunistasrevolucionarios.pt]

Firstly, the spotlight is on the astonishing rise of Chega, which, in just a few years, has gone from one to 58 MPs (though there are still four seats to be attributed, and this does not yet include votes by Portuguese emigrants). It won 22.6 percent of the vote. It is clear that the so-called ‘protest vote’ has shifted from the left-wing reformists to the right-wing ‘populists’.

Chega, like the other parties, entered the election promising higher wages, better healthcare, etc. However, it was the only party with a clear political message, denouncing “50 years of corruption”, which struck a chord with the anger that exists in the country. Its anti-immigration rhetoric also made it the main beneficiary of the drift towards militarism and xenophobia during the last months of the Luís Montenegro’s government. Montenegro heads the Social Democratic Party, which is actually a centre-right liberal party.

Chega was the most voted for party in the districts of Setúbal, Portalegre, Beja and the Algarve. Symptomatically, North of Lisbon, it won the three historic strongholds of the left: Marinha Grande, Nazaré and Peniche!

Its support base is very heterogeneous. There is undoubtedly a core of totally reactionary elements that are nostalgic for the dictatorship, as well as a section of the petty bourgeoisie which, crushed by the rising cost of living and uncertainty, support Chega. But it cannot be ignored that there is a whole layer of the working class which, 10 or 15 years ago, would have voted for left-wing parties or not voted at all. Now they are voting for Chega.

Crisis of leadership for the ruling class

The bourgeoisie is still unable to form the strong government it needs to attack the workers in the coming period, as required not only by the global crisis of capitalism but also by its European partners.

Luís Montenegro's government has been able to, over the last year, distribute some ‘sweeteners’ to certain professional sectors / Image: Agência Lusa, Wikimedia Commons

Taking advantage of relatively favourable economic conditions and a budget surplus of more than three billion left by the previous government, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's government has been able to, over the last year, distribute some ‘sweeteners’ to certain professional sectors such as the police and the military (the repressive apparatus), as well as doctors, teachers, nurses and firefighters. Although not all their demands have been met, concessions have been made.

This respite, however, has come to an end. At the end of last year, the Central Bank warned of the country slipping back into deficit and its likely failure to meet the targets set by the European Union by 2025. During the campaign, it was announced that GDP had fallen by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025.

In the election, Democratic Alliance (AD), the ruling coalition of the Social Democratic Party and the CDS – People's Party, obtained almost 32.7 percent of the votes, up from 29 percent in last year's election.

Given the storm that awaits Montenegro, this growth is truly paltry. Most importantly, it does not give AD an absolute majority. Even the liberal crutch can add little support: Liberal Initiative (IL) only won 5.53 percent. Clearly, the IL’s mantra of a fiscal shock – deep cuts – did not convince anyone beyond a fringe of the middle and upper-middle classes who would benefit.

On the right, the only possibility for a government with a parliamentary majority would be a coalition between the AD and Chega. At this point, it seems unlikely. But even if such a government were formed, there would be no guarantee of even a minimally stable executive, given the unpredictable and populist nature of Chega.

Reformists battered

The decline of the Socialist Party (PS) is the best reflection of the rot of the Novemberist regime, the regime created in the aftermath of the Portuguese revolution, which overthrew the dictatorship. PS was an active founder of this Novemberist regime. Having governed for more than 20 of the last 30 years, the collapse in the vote for the PS is perhaps the best symbol of the crisis of legitimacy and confidence that the establishment and its institutions inspire. From an absolute majority in January 2022 to the third political force in parliament, the fall has been dizzying.

The decline of the Socialist Party (PS) is the best reflection of the rot of the Novemberist regime / Image: Agência Lusa, Wikimedia Commons

Even with the support of an absolute majority, the last PS government fell after being discredited by: indirect austerity at the hands of inflation and rising interest rates; the deterioration of public services which had been sacrificed to pay off the public debt; and successive cases of incompetence and suspected dirty dealings, lending credence to Chega leader André Ventura's vociferous claims about shameless corruption!

Finally, there is the collapse of the left-wing reformists: Livre's modest gains do not compensate even remotely for the Left Bloc's debacle or the CDU's (the coalition of the Green party and the Communist Party) continued erosion. Of these three forces, Livre has the fewest links to mass movements and is not known for any trade union work or influence.

The fall of the CDU and the Left Bloc into the abyss is solely and exclusively the result of the resounding failure of their policies of class collaboration, particularly during the geringonça period – the ‘contraption’, the ruling coalition of the PS, Communist Party and the Left Bloc. Everyone realises that the only wish of these parties is the reconstitution of a new geringonça. In the minds of the left reformists, this time, unlike the original experiment, it should be able to meet expectations. Wishful thinking.

The short-sightedness of these leaders is so great that they do not understand that the conditions that made the first geringonça possible no longer exist. First of all, capitalism no longer enjoys the relative stability of those years. Secondly, at that time, these parties had behind them the wave of mass struggles which occurred during the years of the debt crisis and austerity imposed by the Troika. This boosted these parties electorally and meant that some – but very few – of their demands were accepted by the bourgeoisie. In exchange for this, these parties participated in channelling this movement away from the streets and towards negotiations between the government and the Troika.

It is extremely depressing to hear the General Secretary of the Communist Party, Paulo Raimundo, talk (again) about the aim now being “resistance, in a particularly demanding context” or the national coordinator of the Left Bloc, Mariana Mortágua, pontificate about how “times are difficult, and we did not choose the times in which we happen to live”.

Times are difficult because the leaders of the left have decided to make them difficult with their totally incorrect policies! In the midst of a capitalist crisis, times should indeed be politically difficult… for the ruling class! That the anger building up in society is being channelled towards a demagogue like Ventura, while the left reformists languish, speaks volumes about their failure! Sowing pessimism among their militant base is just a clumsy attempt to cover up their mistakes.

Is fascism coming?

But this should not be a time for self-pity or despair, much less for blaming the people for the election results, as some do.

For us, revolutionary communists, these results do not demoralise us in the slightest. They are not even surprising, given that they merely reproduce the trends we are seeing throughout Europe: the discrediting of the liberal establishment, the bankruptcy of the reformists and the rise of the right-wing populists, riding on social resentment.

We know full well that Chega is a reactionary party which, despite its rhetoric, ultimately aims to defend and perpetuate the vested interests of the bourgeoisie. It resorts to prejudice, racism and demagogy about criminality and insecurity. This is done to divert the justified anger in society from those truly responsible for the crisis – the capitalists and all bourgeois politicians – towards minorities already prone to discrimination, turning them into scapegoats.

When Ventura approaches power, he will drop his demagogic disguise to reveal his true nature: that of a reactionary capitalist politician / Image: Duke of Winterfell, Wikimedia Commons

But Chega are also the only ones who present themselves (albeit demagogically) as ‘anti-system’, in contrast to the left, which prides itself on positioning itself as the great defender of the ‘values’ and ‘principles’ of this rotting regime, the bourgeois parliamentary democracy inaugurated by the coup of 25 November.

Chega is often characterised as a ‘fascist’ party. Although it is a reactionary force, it is not correct to characterise it as fascist. Historically, fascism represents the mobilisation of the crazed petty bourgeoisie and the lumpenproletariat with a view to the physical destruction of the workers' movement and the suppression of its organisations, parties and unions.

Even if it wanted to, Chega does not have the social strength to do this, nor does the bourgeoisie currently have any use for fascism. The most lucid strategists of capital are well aware of the real balance of forces in society. They understand that it is not in their interest at this moment to risk civil war with all its consequences, which is what the rise of fascism would mean.

When Ventura approaches power, he will drop his demagogic disguise to reveal his true nature: that of a reactionary capitalist politician. Chega's broad social base will then disintegrate. And the social anger that has fuelled Chega will seek new forms of expression. This will have explosive and potentially revolutionary consequences.

Ten years ago, the pendulum swung to the left. Now it has swung to the right. A new inflection point will occur in the future, as the masses are forced by the crisis to seek a solution that does not currently exist: the party of socialist revolution. Building it is our task.

A glimpse of the future that awaits us was the strike at the state-owned rail company, CP, that paralysed rail traffic and shook the election campaign. It was supported by 100 percent of the workers who were called out, even those who voted for Chega! Is this a symptom of a ‘stupefied’ people, of an inevitable march towards fascism?

Of course not! What the CP strike (or, for that matter, the Compal strike) demonstrates is the enormous potential strength of the working class. This force needs to be organised, made aware of its class interests and mobilised. And when the workers, en masse, set themselves in motion – and capitalism is pushing them to do so – all the divisions of race, gender, sexual orientation, etc., which the bourgeoisie uses to divide them, and which the right-wing populists feed on, will fall away. Workers will discover at their side on the picket line coworkers of all races, genders and sexualities facing the bosses and the police.

We must not lose sight of the fact that yesterday, more than a million migrants – the most exploited and oppressed sector of the working class – could not even vote! It will not be through moral preaching, but through class action, not through illusions, but through revolutionary ideas and struggle that we will defeat the bourgeoisie and its populist puppets.

Yesterday was election day. Those elections solved nothing! Today is the day to continue the struggle and to organise, starting now, the best of the working class and youth for the battles that await us! Join the Revolutionary Communist Collective, the Revolutionary Communist International in Portugal!