Vietnam: the death of a strongman leader ushers in period of uncertainty

In the past weeks, the ruling party of Vietnam, the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) experienced a sudden change of leadership after the death of its aging General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng on 19 July. Trọng had been the de facto supreme leader of the country for 13 years, and oversaw a process of concentrating power in the state and in his person, not unlike the process in China around Xi Jinping. What is the significance of this post being passed on to Tô Lâm, the President? How will all this affect the perspectives of Vietnam and its class struggle moving forward?

On 19 July, Vietnam’s previous supreme leader, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, died at the age of 80 after years of speculation around his ailing health. Trọng was considered one of the most powerful leaders in Vietnam after Ho Chi Minh himself, as he introduced many significant changes in policies that would shape a new period of Vietnamese capitalism, which the VCP regime restored under its watch beginning in the late 1980s.

Unlike his predecessors, Trọng advocated for stronger state intervention into the economy, and more concentration of power into the state and top leadership. His signature policy was a wave of anti-corruption campaigns (dubbed ‘Blazing Furnace’) that hit out against individual capitalists and their associates within the party, in an attempt to reel in the excesses of capitalism that threatened to destabilise the situation and provoke class struggle.

Later on, Trọng initiated a ‘party rejuvenation’ campaign, in which he emphasised ‘communist morality’ and called for the self-cultivation, and self-respect of all party members. The real goal of the campaign was to boost the party’s legitimacy and reputation, after nearly a decade of diminishing support under the previous Nguyễn Tấn Dũng leadership that was rife with corruption.

The fact that Trọng had to do this showed that the nominally ‘Communist’ party of Vietnam that itself restored capitalism and destroyed the gains of a planned economy was facing a serious crisis of legitimacy in the eyes of the masses when he took power in 2011. The Vietnamese masses have strong revolutionary traditions, and yet they are ruled by a dictatorial bureaucracy that dismantled the gains of the planned economy. As inequality loomed ever larger, the overt displays of corruption and cronyism threatened to ignite massive anger and to cause the masses to reconnect with these traditions. Trọng and his wing of the party were conscious of this fact and sought to clean up the party’s image before it was too late.

Fortunately for Trọng, his ‘Blazing Furnace’ campaign coincided with a period of economic boom in Vietnam. These created the impression that Trọng was a ‘leader of the people’, a Vietnam War generation party leader who maintained the revolutionary spirit of the past while skillfully steering the country’s capitalist economy in the interests of the masses.

In the process, Trọng also uprooted many of his factional rivals within the Party, and upended the country’s ‘four pillar’ leadership structure, whereby power at the top was supposed to be equally balanced between the General Secretary, the President, the Prime Minister, and the Chairman of the National Assembly. Trọng, in effect, became the representative of the whole Party and the government that he led. And, for a time, he enjoyed popular support from the masses.

Like Xi Jinping in China, Trọng emerged as a strongman who dominated the party-state / Image: DaNangTV, Wikimedia Commons

Like Xi Jinping in China, Trọng emerged as a strongman who dominated the party-state. Trọng’s role as the representative of the party was so large that the rest of the bureaucrats could not afford to lose him without angering the masses. In 2021, Trọng was for his third term as Secretary – yet another unprecedented record in Vietnamese history.

But like Xi’s own anti-corruption campaigns, the ‘Blazing Furnace’ ultimately served as a smoke screen as well as an excuse to eliminate factional rivals. Corruption itself remained, and at times reached spectacular levels, because capitalism cannot exist without corruption. The fact that it cannot be wholly eliminated exposes the fact that the bureaucracy ultimately defends capitalist property relations, and it must tolerate to one degree or another all the ills that flow from that.

The most recent trial of Truong My Lan and Van Thinh Phat real estate group, which came to light this year, exposed the limitations of the ‘Blazing Furnace’ campaign. Lan was one of the biggest real estate tycoons in Vietnam, and she was found to have defrauded $44 billion USD from Saigon Commercial Bank, the country’s biggest bank.

The amount of money in question is equal to 10 percent of Vietnam’s GDP. How was a single individual able to move this amount of money? A slew of state officials in Lan’s pockets helped cover her tracks. Yet the scale of such a financial crime was simply too large to ignore, and thus the hand of the ‘Blazing Furnace’ had to come down. Lan was arrested in 2022 and sentenced to death in 2024.

The state hailed Lan’s prosecution as a victory for ‘Blazing Furnace’, showing that they are willing to go as far as executing a billionaire to defend the country from corruption. But many have raised more unanswered questions. Lan’s scheme is said to have begun a decade ago. Why was this enormous crime not exposed sooner if the anti-corruption campaign was supposed to be thorough-going? People also asked: where did this enormous sum of money go after Lan’s conviction? These questions remain unanswered by the VCP regime to this day.

The Bamboo policy

In the sphere of foreign relations, Trọng introduced the ‘Bamboo policy’ whereby Vietnam would balance between the US and China amidst the two imperialist powers’ rivalry. The bamboo is a metaphor for being at once firm and flexible. In this way, Trọng hopes to play off the two sides to gain the greatest profit for Vietnamese capitalism, while preventing China from dominating Vietnam, with whom they have conflicting national interests.

During a state visit by Joe Biden to Vietnam, Trọng declared that Vietnam’s relationship with the US was upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership / Image: POTUS, Wikimedia Commons

China is both the largest trading partner and source of foreign investment in Vietnam, and this economic relationship contributed to the economic boom under Trọng. Nonetheless, the rise of China as an imperialist power and its ambitions pose direct threats to Vietnam, especially in territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Vietnam is also unsettled by the fact that some of its neighbours, like Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, have all come under the domination of China.

Keeping China at arm’s length therefore became a necessity for the VCP bureaucracy, reflected in Trọng’s ‘Bamboo’ diplomacy. While maintaining deepening economic ties with China, Trọng also took drastic steps to develop its ties with the US, the imperialist power that had ravaged Vietnam for two decades in the not-so-distant past. In 2016, Vietnam became the first nominally ‘communist’ regime to purchase arms from the US. In 2023, during a state visit by Joe Biden to Vietnam, Trọng declared that Vietnam’s relationship with the US was upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The other two countries that Vietnam regards as ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partners’ are Russia and China.

But the facts of life are this: China is an economic powerhouse on its doorstep, whilst US imperialism, on the other side of the Pacific, is in a phase of relative decline. During Trọng’s lifetime, the ‘Bamboo’ diplomacy largely achieved its intended effects, but with the rivalry between China and the US rising to new levels, Vietnam’s ability to maintain this balance will face growing uncertainties, and Trọng’s successor, Tô Lâm, will likely have to manage what may come.

The rise of Tô Lâm

With Nguyễn Phú Trọng dead, the question of his replacement became a burning question for the entire party-state. After nearly three weeks of silence on the question, on 3 August, the Central Committee voted the sitting President Tô Lâm to serve out the rest of Trọng’s term as General Secretary, which will end in 2026.

Tô Lâm, who is known to be Trọng’s anti-corruption tsar, took up leadership with force. He retains his position as President, thereby at once holding two out of the four top jobs in the party-state apparatus. On the same day of his coronation as the new General Secretary, four high-ranking officials considered to be at odds with him were sacked, and more sackings are expected.

Tô Lâm promised to continue Trọng’s key policies / Image: Kremlin.ru, Wikimedia Commons

Tô Lâm promised to continue Trọng’s key policies, above all continuing the anti-corruption ‘Blazing Furnace’ campaign as well as the ‘Bamboo’ policy in foreign relations. Many have pointed out that the concentration of power under Trọng is also very likely to continue in the hands of Tô Lâm. This is not an accident. In the face of growing class anger and struggles erupting from below and intensifying crises for world and Vietnamese capitalism, the state would need more power to balance between the classes and maintain its rule. It is perhaps no accident that Tô Lâm rose through the ranks as a police chief, and he is still strongly rooted in the police system.

However, unlike Trọng who played up his past as a party cadre during the Vietnam War to win a degree of authority among the masses, Tô Lâm is the face of the hypocrisy of this regime that ‘campaigns’ against corruption. In 2021, a video emerged in which Tô Lâm, on a visit to London, dined at the outrageously expensive restaurant of internet celebrity Nusret Gökçe (known as ‘Salt Bae’). There, he was fed slices of steak covered in gold. The tomahawk steak he ate allegedly cost £1,450, and the video understandably enraged many in Vietnam where the average monthly salary stands at around £250.

This video, with all the hypocrisy it displayed, remains synonymous with Tô Lâm to this day. The image of the celebrity chef who fed him, Salt Bae, has been banned in Vietnam to stop discussion of this scandal. One Vietnamese man was even jailed for impersonating the chef. All this reflects the widespread discussion and anger at Tô Lâm and the regime’s hypocrisy.

Tô Lâm may have taken the reins in the state, but the masses have no illusions in him. Rather, the contempt felt for him is all but certain to spread to his government.

Instability ahead

More fundamentally, unlike his predecessor Troung whose rule coincided with a decade of economic growth, Tô Lâm took office amidst a straining economic crisis.

Inflation has been steadily on the rise and now stands at a new height of nearly 4.36 percent, while GDP growth slowed down significantly from 8.1 per cent in 2022 to around 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024. The scandal and scale of the Truong My Lan case also significantly damaged Vietnam’s reputation among foreign capitalists and led to more hesitation for further investment.

Tô Lâm’s government will also face a significantly more tense international situation / Image: Truyền hình Hưng Yên HYTV, Wikimedia Commons

Tô Lâm’s government will also face a significantly more tense international situation. With the tension between China and the US increasing and the rising trend of protectionism, his continuation of the ‘neutral’ ‘Bamboo’ policy will face tough pressure from both sides.

Meanwhile, the balancing act that Trọng carried out with some success will become more and more difficult. That Trọng was forced to concentrate ever more power in his hands was a reflection of the growing contradictions in Vietnamese society. It seemed to work for a while, but this rested on a number of factors: the fact that the economy continued growing being the most important, but the personality of Trọng himself was no small factor. Now he is gone.

Tô Lâm will have to centralise power further, but without the aura of his predecessor, and under much tougher circumstances. The crisis will force him to apply draconian measures on the working class sooner or later in the interests of Vietnamese capitalism.

What the working class in Vietnam faces today is an increasingly gloomy future, with increasing repression from the state and economic strangulation. Vietnam’s capitalist economy is heavily dependent on exports and the super-exploitation of its working class, and yet the developments of the last decade have created a very powerful proletariat in the country. As a matter of fact, the regime is terrified of this, as once the working class moves, no force and no bureaucratic measures on the part of the regime can put a stop to it.

The elimination of all corruption and the fight for democracy and freedom will be achieved only under a true workers’ state and a genuine socialist society. Only through worker’s democracy and abolishing the ruinous capitalist system (and its arch-defender: the VCP), can the problem finally be resolved at its root. A workers’ revolution is the only way to free the masses of Vietnam and Southeast Asia from the daily oppressions of dictators, capitalists, corruption, and exploitation.