The drones come home to roost for the government of Latvia

In the early hours of 7 May, three Ukrainian drones entered Latvian airspace. Two of those fell onto Latvian territory near the Russian border, setting off a chain of events culminating in the collapse of the government. This is the price the Latvian ruling class is having to pay for turning the country into the most bellicose ally to Ukraine, thereby letting NATO put a huge target on their back.

Throughout the war, Latvia contributed close to two percent of its GDP to Ukraine’s aid, placing it among the top contributors relative to its own GDP. It shares this position with its Baltic neighbours. Latvia is also the co-leader of the International Drone Coalition for Ukraine, and, in the first half of 2025 alone, produced 12,000 drones domestically for delivery to the Kyiv regime. 

The drones that fell in Latvia on 7 May do not represent an isolated incident. Since March, drones sent from Ukraine towards Russian infrastructure targets on the Baltic Sea have repeatedly crossed the airspace of the Baltic states and Finland. Only one of these has been successfully shot down in Estonia, since it came a bit too close to a residential building. Four have crashed in Latvia (including the two that fell in May), two in Lithuania and two in Estonia.

When the first drones were identified, Russia accused the Baltic states of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks on Russian targets. Back in April, they received a warning – keep doing this, and there will be repercussions. The Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian rulers expressed indignation at the allegation, denying they gave Ukraine any official permission. All accused the Russians of using RADAR jamming to deliberately turn their allies’ drones towards their airspace.

But official permission or not, the ruling classes of Latvia are not hapless victims. They produce drones for Ukraine, ship them to Ukraine, either allow Ukraine to use their airspace or else to skirt their airspace without shooting them down – by any measure, this little country is a de facto belligerent against Russia.

They have loudly and proudly placed themselves at the forefront of NATO’s war on Russia: militarily, financially, and ideologically. They have been some of the loudest and most belligerent proponents of the Ukrainian War effort and whipped up a torrent of warmongering propaganda. They have further provoked the Russians by persecuting the Russian-speaking population of Latvia.

The confidence with which they thumbed their noses at the giant to their East is, of course, heavily dependent on the unconditional support of NATO and the EU, for whom the rulers of Latvia have willingly acted as proxies, blithely disregarding the dangers this creates for the Latvian people. But now, this support is not guaranteed. 

President Donald Trump has increasingly signalled to America’s Atlantic partners that they need to take care of their own defence, and has been trying to extricate himself from Ukraine, which he regards (not wrongly) as an expensive waste of time for US imperialism. He has even hinted at pulling out of NATO altogether, which would spell the end of the alliance.

This has left Europe enfeebled and divided. And the Baltic states, as some of the weakest regimes in this already weakened Europe, are left facing the consequences of the reckless aggression of their ruling, pro-western elites. 

Government collapses

The drone incident has also revealed all of the weaknesses of the Latvian regime, plunging it into infighting and a severe crisis of legitimacy. In a country that spends close to five percent of its GDP on defence, and which has been scaring its population with threats of imminent Russian invasion for years, the 7 May incident quickly transformed from a question of security to one of overall trust in the government. 

In its initial response, the Ministry of Defence claimed that it had not attempted to down the Ukrainian drones because of fears this could endanger civilians. In other words, Latvia has never given Ukraine ‘permission’ to use its airspace… but has a policy of not taking action when Ukraine uses its airspace anyway.

This suggests either they covertly are giving permission to Ukraine to use their airspace – which they are terrified to openly admit before the Russians; or this ruling elite, that staked everything on being capable defenders of Latvia, is utterly incompetent.

Andris Sprūds, the country’s defence minister and a member of the social-democratic Progresīvie (Progressives) party, had already narrowly defeated a no-confidence vote in April over the same question of aerial security. This time, he quickly announced his resignation.

Crashed Ukrainian drone in Latvia / Image: Latvian Armed Forces

This set off a domino effect. Ten minutes before his press conference, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa, of centre-right Jaunā Vienotība (New Unity) party, announced that she had asked the minister to step down – denying that he had left of his own volition. Sprūds’ Progresīvie party then immediately responded to the PM, calling the announcement a political manoeuvre, and stating that they would leave the ruling coalition. 

Siliņa’s government rested on three parties: her own, Progresīvie, and the Union of Greens and Farmers; Progresīvie’s withdrawal left her without a majority. Facing a potential vote of no confidence from the opposition, Prime Minister Siliņa announced her own resignation, reprimanding her former coalition partners for choosing “political jealousy and narrow party interests” over “responsibility”. 

Siliņa’s resignation came a little over a week after she shared, while attending a Christian Leadership Conference in London, that the voice of God had told her she would become prime minister. God, of course, works in mysterious ways, but it seems the big man upstairs had a different plan for Evika after all. 

The last straw

The drone debacle was merely the last straw for an already splintering coalition. Before this, there was the issue of the bottomless money pit that is Rail Baltica. This railway is meant to connect the Baltic states with Poland, but its costs keep ballooning, and construction keeps getting delayed. 

Then there is the failing national airline AirBaltic, which Siliņa said she would prioritise saving even if it cost her the collapse of the coalition (just a month before it collapsed). The minister of agriculture (and leader of the Union of Greens and Farmers, another ruling coalition partner) was also detained on corruption charges.

While the politicians engage in scandalous corruption and waste, for workers, the youth and the poor, the country has been hollowed out by economic stagnation and demographic collapse. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Latvian population has shrunk by more than a third – mostly due to emigration in search of better economic conditions. 

The other factor behind the population decline is the country’s tragically high mortality rate, linked to the overstretched and underfunded healthcare sector – which now faces a €652 million funding shortfall. Latvian healthcare spending is amongst the lowest in Europe, as is the life expectancy of its population. 

Instead of tackling this social rot, the Latvian ruling class is firmly choosing to invest in warfare over healthcare or social services. Its loyalty is not to the Latvian people but to the western capitalist class, for whom it acts as a mercenary and border guard against Russia. Over the last decade, it has quadrupled its defence spending. Earlier this year, it reintroduced mandatory conscription. 

The 2026 budget reallocated a total of €565.5 million in additional funding towards security, demography, and education. This money did not come from economic growth, but from expenditure cuts to other departments, as well as a significant increase in borrowing. Between the three prioritised sectors, military and border defence is set to receive more than double the combined new funding for family support and education reform. 

In the context of this massive campaign of rearmament, the Latvian Health and Social Care Workers’ Trade Union (LVSADA) demanded a €133 million salary increase to tackle the pressing issues of the sector, but this was rejected as impossible. This prompted the leader of the union to say that immediate action is needed if we don’t want to “turn the country into a well-guarded cemetery”. 

Of course, as we can see today, the cemetery is not even especially well guarded. In the eyes of millions of Latvians, the feeling towards their ruling class is summarised as: we sacrificed so much and you had ONE job, protecting us, and you can’t even do that!

What next?

The Latvian president recently approved the new government. This coalition is not very different from the one that just collapsed, both in its party composition and its commitment to the West. It will not get to rule the country for too long, as the next election is set for October. This period, therefore, will be treated by all the parties as an election campaign – and it will not be an easy one.

The mood of unconditional support for Ukraine, while still high, has definitely decreased since the start of the war. The degree of support for EU and NATO varies, with the Russian-speaking minority much more wary of their role in prolonging the carnage. The drone drama will definitely contribute to this, especially amongst the youth. 

The collapse of Evika Siliņa's government is the price the Latvian ruling class is having to pay for turning the country into the most bellicose ally to Ukraine / Image: Wikimedia Commons

Meanwhile, the prioritisation of defence spending over the improvement of conditions in the country has not gone unnoticed. One study from last year showed that Latvians favour social and economic spending over defence (60 percent), but if defence spending is necessary, a majority prefer achieving this by a special levy on the rich (47 percent) over cutting social or economic funds (18 percent).

Currently, poll projections show that the right-populist ‘Latvia First!’ party stands to win the most in the elections. The party is formally still pro-NATO, but its leader, businessman Ainārs Šlesers, has openly welcomed Trump’s peace proposals as early as 2024, stating that “better a bad peace than a good war”. This already sets him completely apart from the rest of Latvia’s politicians.

The party’s recent agitation has focused on the economic conditions suffered by Latvians, as well as on calling out government incompetence. And there is a lot of incompetence to call out! Naturally, the pro-capitalist gangsters in ‘Latvia First!’ have no answers either. But in the absence of any alternative, they have co-opted the growing anti-establishment sentiment.

What will happen next? Only time will tell. Around 42 percent of the electorate are undecided as to what party they will vote for, if any. The populists have a lot of avenues to exploit to win some of those people over. The Baltics, like all of Europe, have entered a period of deep crisis. With Trump shifting his focus away from the Atlantic, the European bourgeoisie is being exposed as naked – and, in the case of Latvia, afraid.

The staunchly pro-western Latvian political establishment have brought this onto themselves. But it is the working class of the country that has been and will continue to pay for their rulers’ recklessness. They are paying in cuts, worsened living standards, attacks on democracy and free speech, and a feeling of increased insecurity. They will start asking themselves: what was it all for?

Increasingly, the advanced workers and youth in the Baltics will begin looking for a radical alternative, as they have in other countries. We invite Baltic class fighters to join the building of the RCI in the region!