Netherlands: government collapses as Wilders withdraws

After only 11 months, the Dutch government of prime-minister Dick Schoof has collapsed as notorious rightwing demagogue Geert Wilders decided to pull the plug on it. At a time when the ruling class needs a strong government that ramps up military spending and makes cuts to everything else, this brings more instability and uncertainty to Dutch politics.

[Originally published in Dutch at marxisten.nl]

The government of Dick Schoof came to power in the summer of last year after months of negotiations, plagued by constant squabbles, following the November 2023 elections. Those elections were won by the Party for Freedom (PVV), the party of the right-wing demagogue Geert Wilders.

In the end, a right-wing coalition was formed with the BBB (Farmer Citizen Movement, another right-wing demagogic party), the NSC (New Social Contract) and the VVD (the right-wing liberal party of former prime minister Mark Rutte, the current head of NATO). As the parties were divided over having Wilders himself as prime minister, they decided to appoint a partyless figurehead to lead the government. Dick Schoof is a man with a long history in the Dutch state bureaucracy, having led the immigration service and even AIVD, the secret service.

As we have analysed before, the outcome of the November 2023 elections was the result of the massive discontent in Dutch society, which Wilders was able to capitalise on due to the ‘left’ offering no alternative. Wilders’ programme is a mix of racist anti-immigrant chauvinism (especially blaming refugees and migrants for the housing shortage) and demagogic promises about reducing the price of energy, healthcare and groceries.

The problem is that joining the government meant that Wilders’ party, PVV, (as well as the BBB) now had to deliver for the ‘ordinary working Dutch people’ that they claimed to represent. But the Dutch ruling class is demanding cuts in social spending on the one hand and increased military spending on the other. The right-wing demagogues did not want to be associated with this.

This was the cause of further squabbles and strife within the government between the demagogic wing (PVV, BBB) on the one hand, and the more ‘mainstream’ bourgeois wing (NSC, VVD, Schoof himself) on the other hand. We should be clear: Wilders is a bourgeois politician and has no problem with voting for austerity. He has quietly done so many times. However, to compensate for the austerity, he wanted to show his supporters that he could ‘deliver something’ in the form of even stricter anti-migration and anti-refugee policies.

The government parties had indeed agreed to restrict the rights of asylum seekers and refugees and introduce more repressive measures. But, as with everything this government did, it proceeded slowly due to internal divisions and incompetence.

Wilders saw the PVV falling in the polls and feared he would soon be associated mainly with unpopular austerity measures. In addition, there was friction with the other parties in the cabinet, especially with the more ‘mainstream’ bourgeois wing around VVD-NSC and Schoof himself.

Schoof's pledges of continuing military support to Ukraine and his (very timid) shift towards criticising Israel were against Wilders' grain, as these decisions were made without consulting him. After all, Wilders is a very strong supporter of Israel in particular.

Wilders’ gamble

In this situation, Wilders gambled on letting the cabinet collapse. He first issued an ultimatum to the rest of the government regarding a ‘ten-point plan’ consisting of even more anti-refugee measures. When the other parties refused to accept this lock, stock and barrel, he left the government. It is abundantly clear that this was planned in advance.

The other parties did not want to continue to govern as an incompetent minority government, and the centre-left opposition also had no appetite for maintaining a right-wing cabinet whose parties would be decimated at the elections.

In this situation, Wilders gambled on letting the cabinet collapse / Image: public domain

The withdrawal of Wilders has provoked much anger among VVD, NSC and BBB politicians. The VVD is extremely hypocritical in this, as it did exactly the same thing when it let Rutte’s last government collapse over… migration.

NSC and BBB are especially angry that they no longer have a chance to prove themselves and are likely to be all but wiped out at the next elections. Whilst in power, BBB did nothing for the farmers it claims to stand up for; it only scrapped the previous government’s nitrogen policy and put nothing in its place, bringing only more uncertainty. NSC was built around Pieter Omtzigt, the whistleblower in the child benefit scandal, but he left politics after becoming burned out. Without Omtzigt, the party is an empty shell, a regular bourgeois party which will go down as quickly as it rose. In the coming period, we will certainly see many NSC and BBB politicians leaving their sinking ships like rats.

This government’s downfall does not suit the ruling class. It needs a strong government that will continue militarisation and make cuts to public spending. Ironically, outgoing prime minister Schoof will be the one hosting the NATO summit in the Hague at the end of June. The fact that his government has collapsed – like many other pro-NATO governments in the past period – undermines this summit as a show of strength and unity before it has even started.

However, the government's downfall is not a coincidence but an expression of a deeper crisis of Dutch capitalism. The Netherlands may be doing slightly better than other European countries, but it has serious problems that have not and cannot be solved on a capitalist basis.

The ruling class never really trusted Wilders. They tried to co-opt him into the government with the idea of ‘taming’ him. The problem for them is that the PVV is not a regular bourgeois party where the ruling class can apply pressure through different careerist politicians at congresses, etc. It is a ‘party’ where one man, Geert Wilders, decides everything. And as we have seen, he places his own petty interests above those of the ruling class.

What will happen now?

New elections will be organised for 29 October. Wilders will try to make the PVV even bigger, but whether he will succeed remains to be seen. This manoeuvre was a big gamble and has divided his voters. Nevertheless, Wilders will retain a base of ‘anti-establishment’ voters as long as there is no class alternative that can win them over.

The centre-left electoral alliance of GreenLeft and Labour Party (PvdA), led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, will present itself as the ‘progressive’ ‘lesser evil’ to the right and the so-called ‘far right’. Being the very image of the establishment, there is absolutely no chance that this so-called ‘lesser evil’ will tear away any of Wilders’ voters.

The most likely outcome in October will be that the bourgeois parties refuse to form a new coalition with the ‘irresponsible’ PVV / Image: NATO, Flickr

The most likely outcome in October will be that the bourgeois parties refuse to form a new coalition with the ‘irresponsible’ PVV. Instead, the elections will probably result in a broad coalition with the centre-left, which will be an easy target for Wilders and other right-wing demagogues. It will basically be a continuation of the governments of Rutte and Schoof, with this or that minor difference.

What is missing in all this is precisely a working-class, revolutionary alternative. The absence of such a force has created a vacuum that demagogues like Wilders are currently filling.

The left-reformist Dutch Socialist Party has grown slightly since the last elections, but is nowhere near as strong as it was 20 years ago. Its reformism, combined with chauvinism towards migrant workers, has not won Wilders voters, who only see in them a confirmation that Wilders is right, or the radical youth. Meanwhile, on the economic front, we have seen a new wave of class struggle in recent years, with strikes in all kinds of sectors. What is lacking is not militancy in general, but a political alternative.

The swing of a section of society will prepare, sooner or later, another swing to the left, as other forces fill the vacuum and express the growing anger in Dutch society. The communists in the Netherlands are still too small to fill this vacuum at the moment.

We must build a truly revolutionary class alternative to both Wilders and the liberals and centre-left. Only by putting industry, infrastructure, housing and land into common ownership could we plan and produce in the interests of the majority and provide a good life for all. Help us build this. Join the RCI!