Lebanon: one step closer to Middle East war

Airstrikes hit more than 1,600 targets inside Lebanon on Monday 23 September, the first day of Israel’s bombing campaign. Around 500 people were killed and over 1,600 were injured, while tens of thousands more fled the southern areas of the country. Israel’s undeclared war against Hezbollah has begun.

A prolonged and massive bombardment of southern Lebanon is now taking place in preparation for a subsequent land invasion. In response, Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets, some long-range, towards Haifa, Galilee, Safad, the Sea of Galilee, and the Golan Heights. Meanwhile, the Israeli military continues to concentrate troops and armoured vehicles on the border with Lebanon.

This is a wholly reactionary war of aggression which makes a mockery of ‘international law’, the ‘inviolability of national borders’ and ‘national sovereignty’. Since it is being carried out by Washington’s main ally in the region, we hear no hue and cry over these ‘principles’, there is no chorus of condemnation of Israel, no sanctions, etc. Quite the contrary. US imperialism has reaffirmed its staunch support for Israel, with Blinken asserting that the country has a “legitimate problem” in Lebanon. Such are the double standards of the ‘rules-based world order’.

Israeli commanders have stressed that, for now, the focus is on aerial bombardment and that there are no immediate plans for a ground offensive. On what the next step should be, there are divisions at the top. Some of the army chiefs think that a massive bombing campaign could force Hezbollah to back off. Meanwhile, some members of Netanyahu’s government think that, before extending the war into Lebanon, some kind of deal should be reached with Hamas to put an end to the war in Gaza. The far-right components of his government, however, have threatened to withdraw their support if any such deal is brokered.

These are tactical differences that can determine the tempo of the onslaught on Lebanon but not the direction it is taking.

The present bombardment has the aim of destroying as much of Hezbollah’s firepower as possible. For years, the Israeli intelligence agencies have been monitoring Hezbollah’s build up of bases and weapons, and the IDF is now attempting to destroy as much of that as possible. Another objective is to force the Lebanese civilian population to flee from southern areas, where the Israeli military would later enter with the aim of setting up a ‘buffer zone’ to keep Hezbollah forces away from the Israeli border.

Achieving such an aim, however, will not turn out to be the quick, clean, surgical operation Netanyahu would like us to believe it will be. In spite of recent setbacks suffered by Hezbollah, when Israeli forces enter southern Lebanon they will be facing a formidable fighting force. It could well turn out to be a long, drawn-out conflict, which is precisely what Netanyahu wants: keep Israel in a state of war, create a feeling that an existential threat is being posed to the Israeli Jews, and thus maintain his own government in office.

The latest polls show that, so far, this is working, the war rhetoric having been ramped up. After the killing of the six hostages earlier in the month, Netanyahu declined in the polls as he faced mass protests on the streets with hundreds of thousands calling him out as a murderer. He even faced a short-lived general strike.

This was provoked by Netanyahu’s refusal to pull the IDF out of the Philadelphi Corridor along the border between Gaza and Egypt. In refusing to pull out, Netanyahu aimed to make it impossible for Hamas to accept a ceasefire under such conditions, which was in turn seen as a blatant lack of concern for the hostages. Had elections been held at that moment, Netanyahu would have lost his governing majority. For his own political survival, he needs to keep the country in a state of war, and that is what is pushing him towards an invasion of southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah a formidable enemy

From the point of view of numbers of soldiers and weaponry, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are far stronger than the fighting units of Hezbollah. The IDF is one of the most well-equipped armies in the world. It has 170,000 active military personnel (with a further 400,000 reservists, a large part of which have been called up), 340 fighter planes, including F35s provided by the United States, 400 tanks, close to 800 armoured vehicles, over 50 warships of different dimensions, as well as five attack submarines.

Hezbollah has grown in strength since the last time it was at war with Israel in 2006 / Image: Tasnim News Agency

Its aerial superiority is presently on show over southern Lebanon and other areas of the country. Israel has the weaponry to completely devastate Lebanon. Of that there is no doubt.

Hezbollah, however, has grown in strength since the last time it was at war with Israel in 2006. Estimates of its fighting manpower vary, but most agree that the figure stands at around 45,000 combatants, half of whom are on active duty, the rest being reservists. Hezbollah has also massively increased its firepower in recent years. It has a variety of missiles, rockets and mortars, totalling around 150,000 – possibly 200,000 according to some observers – with an estimated range of 40 to 700 kilometres. It has precision-guided missiles, such as the Iranian-made Fateh 110 with a range of 300km. Israel is about 400 km long and about 100 km wide. Thus, in theory, Hezbollah could strike most areas of Israel and do far more damage than anything Hamas was capable of.

One important weakness of Hezbollah is that it has limited numbers of anti-aircraft missiles, and it has no manned aircraft of its own. This means that, in the present bombing campaign, Israel has a clear superiority. Things can change very quickly, however, should the present conflict become one of Israeli and Hezbollah units facing each other on the ground.

Hezbollah has a large stock of drones and thousands of anti-tank missiles, including updated systems capable of penetrating IDF tanks. It also seems that it may have tanks stashed away in Syria. It also has a large network of tunnels and bunkers in southern Lebanon.

In a Times of Israel article, Hezbollah has built a vast tunnel network far more sophisticated than Hamas’s, published in January, we are informed that the “tunnel system in south Lebanon runs hundreds of kms, up to the border and even into Israel; launchers can fire precision-guided missiles from there, then disappear…”

This means there are certainly many launch sites that Israeli intelligence may not be aware of, which would be more difficult to destroy from the air.

Hezbollah’s fighters are also battle-hardened with a long experience of war in Syria, working with Russian and Iranian forces, which has significantly increased their military professionalism. It is thus well-trained and well-organised, but also highly motivated, defending its home territory, which it knows well.

As we can see, any incoming IDF units would face a formidable force. It would be very different from what they faced in Gaza, with Hamas’ much less sophisticated weaponry. In the long run, the IDF could destroy much of Hezbollah’s weapons and kill many of its fighters. The IDF and Israel, however, would also pay a heavy price, losing many soldiers and suffering much damage on the home front. Towns and villages in Israel could be facing the danger of being hit by incoming Hezbollah missiles for the first time.

Netanyahu seeks a regional war

Netanyahu and his right-wing cabinet have been working systematically to escalate the war in Gaza into a regional war, with the aim of sucking in Iran. In his thinking, he sees this as the way to force the United States to get more directly involved, thus massively shifting the military balance of forces.

The US Administration, in spite of its support for Israel, does not want to get directly involved in the war. They understand that a wider escalation would have a hugely destabilising impact across the region.

The US, however, is tied to supporting Israel. It is its main ally in the region. What happened on Wednesday at the United Nations is indicative of this. The French and British delegations were pushing for a ceasefire on the Lebanese front, but the US thwarted this, saying that Israel has a “legitimate” security problem and that therefore a “more complex” diplomatic agreement is required.

Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, in his usual two-faced manner, placed the blame for the conflict on Hezbollah because it has been firing rockets into Israel since the beginning of the war in Gaza. No mention of the legitimate rights of the Palestinians is ever made by these gentlemen.

Netanyahu and his right-wing cabinet have been working systematically to escalate the war in Gaza into a regional war, with the aim of sucking in Iran / Image: Khamenei.ir, Wikimedia Commons

There was then a separate attempt by the US and France to get Netanyahu to agree to a 21-day ceasefire on the Lebanese front to allow for some kind of diplomatic solution to the conflict in Gaza. Netanyahu seems to have felt some pressure from US imperialism and verbally agreed to consider the deal, but as soon as this provoked an uproar in Israel, in particular from his far-right cabinet colleagues, he immediately backtracked and said he had never agreed to any such deal. His main concern is to keep together his government and to stay in office as Prime Minister.

Netanyahu can do all this because he is fully aware of the fact that the US will not back down from supporting Israel, whatever its preferred policy might be. This is an indication of the weakened position of the US on a global scale. It is no longer the absolute master of the house.

That is why Netanyahu follows his own plan of action which has been to provoke Iran into entering the fray. In April, he had the Iranian embassy in Syria bombed, killing seven Iranian officials including two elite military commanders. The Iranian regime responded within two weeks – although in such a way that Israel would not suffer any significant damage. The truth is that Iran does not want escalation that could risk pulling in the United States. The problem the Iranian regime faces is that this is exactly what Netanyahu wants.

Israel has been increasing tensions by carrying out a series of provocations. The attack using pagers and walkie-talkies, clearly planned months in advance, was one such provocation. But we also saw the recent airstrikes in Syria in which 14 people were killed and 43 wounded, when roads, military sites and a research centre in Masyaf were hit. Previously we had the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria back in April, and at the end of July the killing of Hamas leader, Haniyeh, while he was a guest of the Iranian government in Tehran. Netanyahu is now openly provoking Hezbollah to respond with retaliatory attacks on Israel, which in turn are being used by Israel to justify widespread bombing of southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut.

It is ironic that, in the conflict between Israel and Iran, it is always Iran that is called on to ‘show restraint’. But it is precisely Iran that is showing great restraint. According to a recent Bloomberg article, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said:

“‘We’re willing to put all our weapons aside so long as Israel is willing to do the same,’ Pezeshkian told reporters… ‘We’re not seeking to destabilize the region.’ ...

“‘If a war erupts in the region, it would serve no one’s interest,’ he said. ‘We don’t want to fight. It’s Israel that wants to drag everyone into war and destabilize the region.’”

Pezeshkian, in fact, would like to normalise relations with the West – even with Israel – as a way of getting sanctions against Iran lifted. But he cannot escape the fact that Netanyahu and his Zionist government see Iran as an existential threat. Iran is, after all, on the verge of becoming a nuclear power. Up until now, the only nuclear power in the region has been Israel.

Iran’s influence stretches across the region from Yemen, Iraq, Syria and into Lebanon, where it has its most capable proxy in the form of Hezbollah. That is why a key priority of the Israeli government has, for some time, been the elimination of the threat from Hezbollah. The only way that can be achieved is through all-out war in southern Lebanon.

Ramping up the conflict on the northern border

Israel’s present preparations for war in Lebanon should come as no surprise to anyone. The sabre-rattling has been going on for some time. Already, back in June, the Israeli military announced that senior officers had approved “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon”. And more confirmations of such plans have surfaced on a regular basis.

Israel’s present preparations for war in Lebanon should come as no surprise to anyone / Image: public domain

In the western press the idea is sometimes expressed that there may be more ‘moderate’ Zionist politicians who exclude further escalation. We have Benny Gantz, who is supposed to be the ‘adult in the room’, i.e. the guy you can count on for moderation. Gantz is presently in opposition to the Netanyahu government. His position, however, is not one of ending the war. On the contrary, he is of the opinion that Israel should already have shifted its focus from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran earlier, and that “we are late on this…”

Let us remember that Gantz, leader of the Israel Resilience Party, is in favour of strengthening the settlements in the West Bank. These people may have differences over tactical questions, whether to negotiate for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza or not, but they are all fundamentally Zionists, and all agree on the long-term project of building a Greater Israel at the expense of the Palestinian people.

Over the past year, Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have not officially declared a state of war. And yet, since last year’s Hamas attack and prior to the present massive aerial bombardment, 433 Hezbollah fighters had already been killed in skirmishes, with a further 78 fighters from other groups also killed, as well as around 150 civilians.

On the Israeli side, the death count was 20 IDF soldiers and 26 civilians. That makes a total of 700 killed before all-out war has even commenced. To all this we now have to add the dead (the latest figure is 37) and the injured (over 3,000) in the pager and walkie-talkie attacks that hit mainly Hezbollah officials and commanders, and the more than 500 killed on Monday. This brings the total killed in the conflict with Hezbollah to well over one thousand over the past year.

The pager attack was clearly a massive stepping up of a simmering conflict, and was part of preparations for an offensive on the Lebanese border.

On 17 September, the very same day of the pager attack, the Israeli cabinet had voted to expand the goals of the present war to secure the border with Lebanon with the aim of “returning the residents of the north securely to their homes” and Netanyahu’s office added that “Israel will continue to act to implement this objective.” Just as he used the hostages to justify the total destruction of Gaza, he is now cynically using the Israeli evacuees from the north of Israel to justify further butchery in Lebanon.

The Israeli military and secret services had gathered intelligence, and military experts had been saying that a surprise aerial bombardment was being prepared, the aim of which would be to eliminate Hezbollah’s ability to launch missiles from southern Lebanon. This would be followed by a land invasion to push back Hezbollah’s forces from the border. The escalation of the war into Lebanon is now staring everyone in the face. And the risk of involving Iran – together with Yemen, Syria and Iraq at the very least – is also growing.

War on Gaza has failed to achieve its objectives

As we have seen, an all-out war between the IDF and Hezbollah is going to be drawn out, provoking a huge number of casualties and massive destruction. The Likud MK, Nissim Vaturi, gave us an idea of what the IDF are planning to do when he said that once war broke out, Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb would “look like Gaza”. What does it mean to “look like Gaza”? It means tens of thousands of people killed and massive destruction to basic infrastructure.

It is clear that in Gaza the Israeli ruling class is pursuing its historical goal of pushing the Palestinians completely out of the areas that Israel claims for itself. The problem is that such a plan is not easily achieved. There is a whole people resisting that goal, who are willing to fight and die to hold onto what is left of their historical homeland. That explains why Netanyahu’s war on Gaza is not achieving the stated aims of guaranteeing security for Israel.

The Israeli army can destroy infrastructure in Gaza, it can kill many Hamas fighters, but it is preparing the conditions for a new generation to join the fight. With its barbaric onslaught on Gaza, with its increased incursions into the West Bank, with the continued colonisation of Palestinian land, Israel is pushing wider layers of Palestinian youth to volunteer to fight. In fact, all indications are that as the Israeli army withdraws from previously taken areas of Gaza, it is Hamas that takes over the running of things.

The same will apply in Lebanon. They can bomb, they can kill, and they can destroy infrastructure. But all this will achieve is to increase resentment across the whole of Lebanon. Those who are presently being bombed in Lebanon will become potential new recruits for the fighting forces opposed to Israel in the future.

Back in June, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari and the head of the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, openly stated in an interview with Israeli broadcaster Channel 13 that, “This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear – it’s simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public. Hamas is an idea, Hamas is a party. It’s rooted in the hearts of the people – anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong.” He explained that a political solution needed to be found. As a leading military figure of Israel, Hagari knows what he is talking about here.

The problem is that Netanyahu does not think like the military, and he has strong reasons of his own to push for escalation of the war. Already, towards the end of August, the Israeli military and Hezbollah were engaged in the heaviest exchange of gunfire since October of last year. As The Washington Post described it, it was “a dramatic but contained escalation that stopped short of all-out war.” The situation has moved on since then.

The consequences of escalation

If the attack on Lebanon turns into a long, drawn-out war, it would have serious consequences both inside Israel and in the region as a whole. Israeli society is under enormous stress. Some figures will suffice to highlight this.

Israel’s economy is experiencing a sharp slowdown. After a steep contraction of 4.1 percent of GDP in the weeks following 7 October, it continued to fall in the first two quarters of 2024, with overall growth for the year forecast at a mere 1.5 percent. The Bank of Israel is predicting that the overall cost of the war will reach US$67 billion by 2025, which could force the government to cut spending on welfare, education and other services, while at the same time its overall budget deficit continues to grow.

If the attack on Lebanon turns into a long, drawn-out war, it would have serious consequences both inside Israel and in the region as a whole / Image: SprinterFamily, Twitter

The building industry is in crisis due to labour shortages – 140,000 Palestinian workers from the West Bank are missing. And agriculture has taken a big hit also. Up to 60,000 companies may have to close before the end of the year due to the fact that much of their workforce has been called up into the army.

This explains the enormous stresses and strains on Israeli society as a whole. Up to half of Israel’s tech companies have cut staff by 5-10 percent. There has been damage to 22 percent of Israel’s fruit and vegetable crops. Businesses have closed in their tens of thousands. Tourism has all but collapsed. The population is living with the threat of escalation of the war, which could see their neighbourhoods being hit by missiles. All this explains why the quantity of addictive drugs and sleeping pill consumption has massively increased over this past year. And the number of people leaving the country is far higher than those entering.

This also explains the deep divisions that run through Israeli society. These were expressed clearly in the huge protests against Netanyahu over the way he has been managing the negotiations for the release of the hostages. It became clear to many that Netanyahu has no real interest in rescuing them.

His stubborn position on the Philadelphi Corridor shows he has no concern for them. This is part of his overall strategy to avoid any kind of negotiations that could involve a ceasefire. As we are seeing, far from seeking a deal that could end the war, Netanyahu is pushing for a much wider conflagration. He will pay a price for this much later down the road, but for now his strategy is working.

Destabilising effect in the region

Netanyahu has no concern for the hostages. This is evident. He also has no concern for the hugely destabilising effect his warmongering is having across the Middle East. But millions of ordinary working people across the region are watching the butchery in Gaza, the attacks on the West Bank, and now the escalating war into Lebanon. They have also watched as Israel has carried out attacks in both Syria and Iran with impunity.

This is feeding a feeling of immense anger among the Arab masses across the whole region. And this combines with the worsening economic and social conditions in their own countries.

Two neighbouring regimes of Israel, Egypt and Jordan – both countries that had long established diplomatic and economic relations with Israel – are facing growing pressure from the depths of society. The economic and social conditions are worsening by the day as the crisis of world capitalism drags them down.

Back in March, the IMF granted Egypt an $8 billion dollar loan package, which according to a report earlier this year, was, “…centered on a liberalized foreign exchange system in the context of a flexible exchange rate regime, a significant tightening of the policy mix, reducing public investment, and levelling the playing field to allow the private sector to become the engine of growth.”

Netanyahu has no concern for the hostages / Image: U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv, Wikimedia Commons

What this means in practice is privatisations and cuts in public subsidies to essential goods, leading to increased prices for the mass of the population. Inflation is above 30 percent. Electricity prices went up by up to 50 percent in August as part of an agreement with the IMF. Subsidies were also cut on fuel. Gas and water bills are rising, and the price of bread quadrupled in June. Around two thirds of the population depended on the subsidised bread to survive. More of this is on its way as the government is forced to apply severe austerity, meaning that millions of families are barely surviving.

In Jordan, we have a similar situation, where over the past decade – again, under pressure from the IMF as public debt has ballooned – the government has removed fuel and bread subsidies, increased taxes, and raised the price of electricity. As a consequence, poverty levels increased from 15 to 24 percent between 2018 and 2022. Youth unemployment stands at around 22 percent.

In the above-quoted report, the IMF explained that, “The difficult external environment generated by Russia’s war in Ukraine was subsequently aggravated by the conflict in Gaza and Israel, as well as tensions in the Red Sea.” The war in Ukraine severely affected grain supplies, causing both shortages and increased prices. Thus we see how war is affecting the living standards of millions of ordinary working people in the Arab world.

The impact of war, however, is not just economic. It is having deep-running effects on consciousness. The masses see the very same governments that are imposing austerity on them de facto supporting Israel in its war against the Palestinians, who are seen as brothers and sisters by the Arab masses.

Back in April, when Iran retaliated against an Israeli attack, the Jordanian military actively participated in downing the barrage of missiles and drones flying over its airspace. In the months after 7 October, there were mass protests in Jordan which the government clamped down on heavily. These events only served to reveal the Jordanian monarch as a de facto ally of Israel and US imperialism.

All this has created an extremely unstable situation in both Jordan and Egypt. Both regimes are looking into the abyss and could face mass revolutionary upheaval if the war escalates further. In April, Foreign Affairs magazine published an article, The Coming Arab Backlash, which stated, “With almost every Arab country outside the Gulf suffering extreme economic problems, and accordingly exercising maximum repression, regimes have to be even more careful in responding to issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” The article reminds readers of the 2011 Arab Spring and highlights the fact that this could happen again. Very true words.

Destabilisation in the West

The impact of the situation in Gaza and now Lebanon goes far beyond the Middle East, however. Across the advanced capitalist world, from the United States, to Europe, to Australia, and in many other countries, we have seen mass protest rallies in solidarity with the Palestinian people.

In London, we have seen rallies of over one million people. We have seen the encampment movement on many campuses. And we have seen how in many countries the war in Gaza has become a key element in local politics. In Britain, it affected the way people voted, and it is also a factor in the way certain states can swing in the forthcoming US presidential elections.

This is all concentrating the minds of the serious bourgeois analysts, who keep warning of the consequences of an escalation of the war in the Middle East. But Netanyahu has no concerns about all this. He is thinking of his own little backyard, and his own political career. One of his aims, as we have seen, is to find a way of sucking in the US. If the war were to escalate to include Iran, the US would be obliged to back up Israel.

If the US were to get involved directly in the war, this could produce a Vietnam war type effect on its own home front / Image: U.S. Secretary of Defense, Flickr

If the US were to get involved directly in the war, this could produce a Vietnam war type effect on its own home front. It would radicalise the youth of America far more than anything we have seen so far. A similar effect would be seen across Europe.

All this comes in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The same politicians who are backing Israel are also pushing for a ramping up of the war in Ukraine, pushing for the Ukrainian military to be granted the right to use weaponry provided by the West to strike deep inside Russia.

Millions of people around the world are looking at a spectacle in which these so-called ‘leaders’ are prepared to play with the risk of a major military confrontation between NATO countries and Russia, thus putting in danger the lives of their own people. Individuals like Netanyahu and Zelensky are prepared to push the whole world towards Armageddon, risking the lives of hundreds of millions of people, all for their own short-term interests.

The war in the Middle East is thus connecting up with the Ukraine war. They are two separate fronts, but in both we have the same imperialist power involved, the US, together with its NATO allies. On the other we have Russia on the Ukrainian front. But Russia is also in a de facto alliance with Iran, and if things were to escalate, China would have to back Russia. It is perfectly aware of the fact that the US has a strategy of limiting China’s access to world markets.

Therefore Israel’s war has worldwide consequences. In the short term, an extension of the war into Lebanon, with its potential to drag other countries in, will have an immediate economic impact. Many countries are either in recession or are stagnating and very close to one. A wider war would push an already tottering world economy over the edge and into a serious downturn, as happened back in 1973-74.

Many people may think that Israel is far away and that events there will not affect them. But it is closer than they imagine and they will soon feel its effects. The coming backlash will not merely be an Arab affair. The workers and youth of the world are suffering the effects of inflation, low wages, lack of jobs, cuts in public services, and they see the same governments who impose all this on them simultaneously engaged in warmongering and the sending of billions of dollars for warfare.

The fight to defend the Palestinian people, to defend Lebanon from Israel’s onslaught, the fight to stop war from spreading around the world starts at home against our own governments. So long as these people remain in power they will continue playing with the lives of millions. Our task is to remove them from power, and with them the whole rotten system they represent. If you want peace between the nations you have to get involved in war between the classes.