Japan: from island of stability to political crisis

The results of the recent Upper House election in Japan have shown that it is experiencing similar shifts in the political landscape as the West, with the meteoric rise of the right-wing populist party, Sanseito (参政党). From being one of the most stable advanced capitalist countries, Japan is staring into an abyss of economic and political crises which will lead to sharp convulsions.

Traditionally, elections to Japan’s Upper House are not politically significant. The Lower House generally has more influence through its ability to introduce bills to the Diet and can often override the Upper House with a majority vote.

But what was once normal has become abnormal. On this particular occasion, the election was treated by the masses as a referendum on the sitting Ishiba (石破) government, and the results have spread panic amongst the Japanese establishment.

For the first time in its 70 year history, the main party of the capitalist class – the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP, 自民党) – has been reduced to a minority position in both the Upper and Lower Houses, despite being in power. This is a nightmare scenario for the capitalists when they require a strong government to handle Trump’s trade war antics, raise military spending, and oversee the cuts required to stop the spiralling public debt.

At the same time, Sanseito, a new anti-establishment and right-wing populist party won the second most votes in the electoral district segment of the election (9,264,284 votes) and was a close third in the popular vote for the proportional representation segment (7,425,053 votes). To put this in perspective, in 2022 the party only received around 2 million votes in each segment of the election, which won it a single seat on the fringes of the Upper House.

Such an upheaval deserves an explanation, for which we must begin by looking at Japan’s transition from deflation to inflation, and the discrediting of the traditional parties in this process.

From deflation to inflation

For decades, inflation was treated like a panacea for the Japanese economy’s stagnation, the bringer of a virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages that would save Japanese capitalism and usher in a new boom.

The Japanese capitalists did their best to bring this about, with a printing and borrowing bonanza in fruitless attempts to try to stimulate growth. The public debt to GDP ratio more than doubled from 99 percent in 2000 to 217 percent in 2022, and the money supply was expanded from ¥121 trillion in 2012 to ¥491 trillion in 2018.

Far from growth, the last two decades have seen further stagnation in wages and GDP. To cite just one figure, real wages in Japan increased by only 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2022.

Even though wage rises were generally still lagging behind the cost of living, the divergence between the two did not develop in the same dramatic manner as seen in most other countries, like the United Kingdom. This resulted in workers having a generally stable, albeit unsatisfactory, existence, with little prospect for improvement.

However, even though the capitalists’ virtuous cycle did not materialise from all this borrowing and money printing, it still planted a ticking time bomb of inflationary pressures which has begun to detonate.

Far from growth, the last two decades have seen further stagnation in wages and GDP / Image: Kakidai, Wikimedia Commons

The increasing cost of basic goods has meant that adults in Japan are eating the smallest daily volume of vegetables since 2001, and rice prices this year have risen to more than double their 2024 levels. Nowadays it is not uncommon to see elderly Japanese people in ‘rice lines’ at the crack of dawn, to secure cheaper rice released from government stockpiles before it sells out.

The Japan Times recently reported that almost two-thirds of parents in Japan find their household finances become “much harder” during school holidays, with most of them reducing their own consumption to cope with the lack of free or subsidised school lunches.

As one parent explained: “I make meals only for the kids and live off their leftovers. My oldest son is in middle school and I feel awful that he tries not to eat too much”. Another said: “Last winter break, I barely ate and collapsed from stomach pain. Now I try to at least eat once a day.”

Such a sharp change in people’s lives must inevitably express itself on the political scene sooner or later. This is what the most recent Upper House elections represented.

The question still remains: why did Sanseito in particular win so much support?

The rise of Sanseito

Sanseito was founded in 2020 with only 2,800 members, under the slogan, “Since there is no political party to vote for, we will create our own from scratch”. In just five years it has gone from the fringes of politics to having 18 seats in the Diet, challenging the dominance of the establishment parties.

Although the Democratic Party for the People (DPP, 国民民主) also saw a big jump in support and the smaller Reiwa Shinsengumi (れいわ) made steady progress, most of the other opposition parties did not benefit from the drop in support for the LDP. For example, the main opposition – the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ, 立憲民主) – actually lost a seat, while the Japanese Communist Party (JCP, 共産党) lost four.

Most articles about Sanseito’s success attribute it to anti-immigration sentiment amongst an electorate that is ‘inherently wary of foreigners’, and have simply been duped by a party that uses the slogan, ‘Japanese First’.

It is true that Sanseito has capitalised on resentment towards the growing number of foreigners and tourists within Japan, with more international visits each year due to a very weak yen. Hotels and restaurants are increasingly catering to these foreign visitors who have more money to spend, raising prices with demand to make a pretty penny, while pushing workers in Japan into a position where they can no longer afford to go to the same establishments. This has led to a sharp 8.2 percent drop in domestic tourism in 2024 compared to pre-pandemic levels.

In just five years Sanseito has gone from the fringes of politics to having 18 seats in the Diet, challenging the dominance of the establishment parties / Image: 赤羽霧, Wikimedia Commons

Combined with general inflation, this created fertile ground for Sanseito’s anti-foreigner rhetoric. Anti-Chinese sentiment has been exacerbated by the party, alongside the lies that foreigners do not pay taxes or for health insurance, and that therefore Japanese people need to pick up the bill.

But this does not tell the whole story. Sanseito’s programme presents policies that connect with the genuine economic woes of Japanese workers. For example, it opposes the privatisation of essential infrastructure like the Tokyo Metro and water utilities, criticising private companies charging higher fees for poorer services. It supports eliminating the hated consumption tax, investing in the automobile and agricultural industries, and education benefits of ¥‎100,000 ($675) per month for every child up to 15 years old.

These economic demands are more radical than what the supposedly ‘left-wing’ opposition parties put forward. None of the traditional left-wing parties openly call for public ownership of infrastructure, or have radical plans to support struggling working-class families. Most of them offer the same thing: reducing the consumption tax while also supporting increased military spending by pointing to the supposed threat of China and North Korea.

It is no surprise that Sanseito’s demands have been a breath of fresh air for millions of people in Japan, who are forced to go hungry despite working long hours, and who are worried about things getting even worse in the wake of Trump’s tariffs.

Reaction or revolution?

Despite this increase in support for Sanseito, it is necessary to have a sense of proportion about what it really means.

Voter turnout was only 53 percent at the recent election, meaning that the greatest winner by far was the ‘abstention party’. While Sanseito has connected with a certain layer of the working class, as well as rural farmers and small business owners, tens of millions of workers in Japan hate all the parties and do not see any of them as worth voting for.

This is a sign that Japan is going through the same process that we are seeing in the US and in Europe – a crisis of democracy and of trust in the political establishment, including the ‘loyal opposition’ parties. Sanseito is partially filling the vacuum left behind by these parties with its mix of policies that seem to address real class issues and anti-foreigner rhetoric, in a similar manner to Farage’s Reform in the United Kingdom.

But such parties cannot live up to the expectations that they have whipped up.

If Sanseito came to power and tried to cut the consumption tax and give massive education benefits, it would invite the ire of the bankers and bosses in Japan, who demand cuts to everything apart from military spending. More radical policies such as public ownership of infrastructure would also be left by the wayside, in order to be seen as a responsible pair of hands for capital.

This would pave the way for massive ferment in Sanseito’s supporter base, many of whom will no doubt swing far to the left as the party discredits itself.

These processes will force the currently-dormant working class in Japan to take action in the coming years as the world crisis of capitalism continues to shake Japanese society from head to toe. The long-term perspective for Japan is one of revolutionary events, not reaction.

The question is whether a revolutionary party of sufficient size, strength and ideological clarity exists to become a point of reference for the discontent of the masses. Today, no such party exists but if you would like to help us build one then join the Revolutionary Communist International today!