French elections: Le Pen ahead – what next?

The results of the first round of the legislative elections are roughly in line with what the polls predicted. The turnout (66.7 percent) was much higher than in 2022 (47.5 percent). Who did this benefit? Not the Macronists, whose defeat was severe. The higher turnout benefited the left-wing New Popular Front and, even more so, the far right. This is shown by comparing the results – by number of votes – in 2022 and 2024.

[Originally published in French at marxiste.org]

The National Rally/Le Pen-Republican/Éric Ciotti alliance collected 10.6 million votes; if we add the result of  Éric Zemmour’s Reconquest, that’s nearly 10.9 million votes. In 2022, the RN and Reconquest total amounted to 5.2 million votes. Between 2022 and 2024, the far right therefore increased by 5.7 million votes.

For its part, the old left-wing NUPES bloc got 5.8 million votes in 2022, and the NFP got 9 million this time. The “united left” therefore progressed by 3.2 million votes, while the far right increased by 5.7 million votes. Taking into account the dissident candidates of the NFP would not change much.

This outcome was predictable, as we wrote in a previous article: 

“Can the NFP win the legislative elections and form the next government? It's possible, but not the most likely outcome. To understand the situation, we must link the electoral arithmetic to the class dynamics that, in the final analysis, form its basis.

“The bourgeoisie and petty bourgeoisie will vote massively either for the RN, for the ‘centre’, or for the ‘independent’ Republicans. However, this only represents a small minority of the electorate, the rest of which is made up of young people and workers. Who will they vote for? A large fraction of this electorate – particularly in its most exploited and oppressed layers – will vote for the RN or abstain. This is what all the opinion surveys indicate, and it is consistent with a dynamic that has been at work for a long time.

“We know the fundamental reasons for this. Since 1981, various so-called left-wing governments have betrayed the aspirations of workers, youth and the poor. This has played a central role in the rise of the RN, which has constantly expanded its electorate not only amongst the petty bourgeoisie, but also in the working class. For decades, millions of workers have found that the alternation between the right and "the left" changed absolutely nothing about their situation. Under the right as under "the left", they were overwhelmed by unemployment, business closures, the destruction of public services, job insecurity and many other ills, while a tiny minority of the population accumulated ever more indecent fortunes.

“The electoral dynamic of the RN can only be broken in two ways. The most painful is that the masses experience an RN government, whose reactionary, pro-capitalist policy would end up disappointing its working-class electorate. The most combative is the development of a massive left alternative that is radical enough to attract the support of millions of young people and workers who, in the absence of such an alternative, abstain or turn to the demagogic ‘radicalism’ of the RN – which, moreover, benefits from the decisive advantage of never having been in power.

“However, the NFP is not a sufficiently radical left alternative, either in its program or in its political composition. The inclusion of François Hollande is the symbol of this; it is also a first-rate gift to the RN. But beyond this grotesque case, the composition of the NFP as a whole, with its old discredited parties (PS, Communist Party (PCF) and the Greens), will have difficulty convincing the mass of young people and the poorest workers, the most exploited, the most crushed by the crisis of capitalism.

“Responsibility for this situation falls, first of all, on the leaders of the PS, the PCF and the Greens, who have continued to shift to the right in recent decades. But the leaders of the FI are also responsible for the current electoral dynamic. They proved incapable of breaking with the right wing of reformism. The NFP is even more moderate than that of the previous left-wing coalition Nupes, which itself marked a step backwards compared to that of LFI in 2022.”

All LFI candidates qualified for the second round should remain and take advantage of the period between the two rounds to attack all right-wing parties / Image: Pierre Selim, Flickr

Let us add that the so-called "Republican Front against the extreme right" plays a totally counterproductive role. Far from weakening the RN, politically, the withdrawal of NFP candidates in favour of Macronist or LR candidates, in a certain number of constituencies, can only strengthen the party of Le Pen and Bardella. The latter will take advantage of this to denounce "swindles" and reinforce their "anti-system" image.

This year, the "Republican Front against the Far Right" - which is in reality a policy of class collaboration  - takes on a singularly grotesque character. It is coupled with a "Republican Front" against... Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his comrades. Le France Insoumise (LFI) is calling on a certain number of its candidates to withdraw in favour of Macronists who, for their part, are calling for the LFI candidates to be defeated, except those who have broken with Mélenchon! As for the LR candidates, some will benefit from the "Republican Front against the Far Right", while others (or even the same ones, in a second phase) will join... the far right.

Yesterday evening, at the Place de la République, in Paris, Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared: “It’s them [the RN] or us [the NFP]! There is nothing in the middle.” However, the same Mélenchon asks LFI candidates to withdraw in favour of the “middle”, that is to say the Macronist right or LR – including, in particular, the former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. By what miracle could this charade weaken the far right?

Revolution categorically rejects the so-called "Republican Front against the RN". All LFI candidates qualified for the second round should remain and take advantage of the period between the two rounds to attack all right-wing parties; and denounce, at the same time, the candidates of the right wing of the NFP who would declare themselves open to the idea of ​​forming a majority with the survivors of Macronism, in a week.

Furthermore, faced with the possibility of a victory for the RN and its allies next Sunday, LFI, the CGT and the entire workers' movement must immediately prepare a solid battle plan to mobilise youth and workers against the arch-reactionary programme of Le Pen, Bardella and their clique. Any other strategy can only strengthen the extreme right and disarm our camp.