This is a transcript of the introduction to a discussion on ‘Perspectives for France’ held at the Founding Congress of the Revolutionary Communist Party (PCR) on 30 November and 1 December 2024.

This week has been full of sharp and sudden turns. The Syrian civil war has suddenly reignited due to the shock advance of a Turkey-backed rebel group. The French president was forced to resign after trying to force through an austerity budget. Joe Biden has used his last few weeks in power to pardon his corrupt son. And, to top things off, the president of South Korea declared martial law, only to be quickly defeated by opposition from the whole of parliament and mass mobilisations. 

On 30 November and 1 December, over 160 activists took part in the founding congress of the Revolutionary Communist Party (PCR), held in Ivry-sur-Seine. Comrades came from the Paris region, Toulouse, Marseille, Aix-en-Provence, Montpellier, Grenoble, Reims, Gap, Lyon, Rennes, Morlaix, Brest, Nantes, Lille, Bourges, Dax, Cherbourg and Val d'Ajol.

Barring a dramatic turn of events, the Barnier government will fall tomorrow or Thursday. A new reprieve could only come from a last-minute retreat by the RN (National Rally) or the PS (Socialist Party). But these two parties would have nothing to gain – and a lot to lose.

French capitalism has entered a new period of massive job destruction. Announcements of closures and redundancy plans are multiplying: Michelin, Auchan, ArcelorMittal, and many others. According to the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), 150,000 industrial jobs are at risk in the short term. By closing down production, contractors are setting off a chain reaction, with suppliers and subcontractors filing for bankruptcy or laying off their own workers.

This week, the Middle East has once again dominated the news, with the ICC issuing an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the announcement of a supposedly ‘lasting’ ceasefire in Lebanon. In Europe, meanwhile, explosive events are being prepared in France, as the tottering National Assembly is set to face off against a rising tide of class struggle.

After seven weeks of delays and a series of ‘consultations’, French President Macron announced yesterday the appointment of Michel Barnier as Prime Minister from the traditional centre-right Les Republicains (LR), who came fourth in legislative elections where the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) won the most seats.

As this issue of Revolution goes to press, Macron has still not named the next occupant of the Hôtel Matignon. He simply dismissed the New Popular Front’s (NFP) proposal out of hand. But, from now on, the identity of the next Prime Minister is of little importance when it comes to analysing the political situation and its prospects.

The crisis of the French regime has the feel of a TV series. Yesterday’s episode was not lacking in a certain dramatic intensity.

Weeks after the second round of the legislative elections saw the left take the highest number of seats in the Assembly, internal negotiations within the New Popular Front (NFP) are logjammed. A division between the NFP’s left and right wing is preventing agreement on a candidate for Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Macron and the far-right are courting more conservative elements of the bloc to shut out La France Insoumise (LFI), block the NFP’s programme, and seek an absolute majority. Only militant struggle outside of parliament can break this impasse!

Three decades ago, between April and July 1994, the Rwandan government organised the extermination of almost 1 million people belonging to the Tutsi ethnic group. This genocide was aided and abetted by the French government, which both financed and armed those responsible, often referred to as ‘génocidaires’. But still, to this day, the French ruling class has not fully and openly recognised its responsibility for one of the most monstrous crimes of French imperialism.

The results of the second round of the French legislative elections brought joy and, above all, relief to millions of voters who feared a victory for the far-right National Rally (RN) bloc.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap legislative elections, with the final round this weekend, is proving a massive headache for the bourgeoisie. The prospect of Macron losing any semblance of a parliamentary majority is spooking the markets. At the same time, the rise of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is provoking hundreds of thousands to take to the streets in protest.

The results of the first round of the legislative elections are roughly in line with what the polls predicted. The turnout (66.7 percent) was much higher than in 2022 (47.5 percent). Who did this benefit? Not the Macronists, whose defeat was severe. The higher turnout benefited the left-wing New Popular Front and, even more so, the far right. This is shown by comparing the results – by number of votes – in 2022 and 2024.

Round one of the French legislative elections is on Sunday. The French communists call for a vote to beat the right and the extreme right at the polls, but we also anticipate major social struggles whatever the composition of the next government. That is to say, even if the left-wing New Popular Front wins, after round two on 7 July. In the following article, we analyse in more detail the storm sweeping French political life, as well as the different possible scenarios and the resulting tasks for the labour movement.