Elections in Bolivia: tectonic shifts in the political landscape

For the first time in 20 years, Bolivia’s Movement for Socialism (MAS) has lost the presidential election – and it was not just any defeat. Having won almost 55 percent of the votes in 2020, MAS now barely reached 3 percent.

In second place, with 26.7 percent of the valid votes, is Tuto Quiroga, a right-wing establishment candidate with ties to former dictator Hugo Banzer. Victory – with more than 30 percent of the vote – went to Christian Democratic candidate Rodrigo Paz and his vice president, former police officer Edman Lara, who has gained prominence on tiktok as ‘Captain Lara’. Since neither Quiroga nor Paz received an outright majority, they will go to a second round of voting in October.

This result came as a surprise, since the latest polls before the elections put Paz at less than 9 percent of the vote. Additionally, another unusual result should be noted: blank and spoilt ballots totaled more than 20 percent of all ballots. From a total of 233,000 spoilt ballots in 2020, the figure jumped to 1.3 million this year. How can this colossal change in Bolivia's political landscape be explained?

The backdrop to these elections was the economic crisis that has been ravaging the country for two years, as well as the internal conflict within MAS surrounding the figure of Evo Morales. An extensive analysis of these phenomena can be found in other articles we have previously published. It is the combination of these crises that led to the collapse of MAS’ vote.

Evo, having been disqualified, instead of giving his support to another left-wing candidate – such as his former disciple Andrónico Rodríguez – called for spoiling the ballot. Many of the spoilt ballots in this election are therefore due to the support that the former president still enjoys, particularly in rural areas. A smaller proportion of them can be attributed to a sector of the population, particularly young people, who lack all confidence in the programmes of the political parties on offer.

The support expressed for Evo through spoilt ballots should come as no surprise. For a considerable sector of the population, the former president is still synonymous with a period of prosperity and improved living conditions. On this basis, if no alternative to the left emerges in the next period, Evo could once again become a point of reference for a significant layer of society.

If we add up the votes obtained by the left parties, as well as the spoilt ballots, we get more than 2 million, or 31.4 percent of all votes. Clearly the left still exists, but it no longer has representation on the electoral front. This means that the struggles to come will necessarily have to be fought exclusively in the streets.

On the eve of the elections, the scenario that seemed to be taking shape was one of a return to power of the same old faces of the right. The arch-reactionary and faithful servant of US imperialism, Tuto Quiroga, on the one hand, and the ‘centrist’ businessman Samuel Doria Medina on the other.

The surprising result obtained by Paz and Lara can be explained precisely by a rejection of these establishment personalities. People have grown tired of MAS – at least of the MAS of recent years – but they also remember and reject the old right wing, which was responsible for so many abuses and massacres against the poor and working population. Paz also positioned himself as a more ‘popular’ and pragmatic figure, which helped him to stand out and win the support of broader layers. In particular, his rejection of the idea of turning to the IMF for economic aid gained him support, as the IMF is a deeply hated institution in the country and is correctly recognised as an instrument of US imperialism.

Tuto promises the “deepest liberal revolution in property ownership” in the history of Bolivia / Image: Asamblea Legislativa Plurinacional, Flickr

It is essential, however, to understand that although the two candidates heading into the second round appear to be very different – both in their proposals and in the way they conduct their campaigns – once in power, their policies will be essentially the same. This is the inevitable result of the logic of capitalism in crisis.

Tuto promises the “deepest liberal revolution in property ownership” in the history of Bolivia. This slogan can only mean brutal austerity and the impoverishment of the vast majority. The first step in his programme, on which everything else depends, is an IMF loan to inject dollars into the economy. This would mean tying the country once again to US imperialism. No matter how much he tries to sugarcoat it, every IMF loan comes with conditions, which in the current economic situation can be summed up in a single word: austerity. His promise to turn Bolivia into a “country of owners” is pure demagogy.

On the other hand, Rodrigo Paz talks about creating “capitalism for all”, a slogan demagogically quite similar to Tuto's “country of owners”, since such an empty phrase can be given whatever content one wants. Bolivia has been experiencing “capitalism for all” for the last 150 years!

“Capitalism for all” means extreme wealth for a small minority, and poverty and misery for the vast majority. In any case, the content that Paz gives to his slogan is more pragmatic than Tuto's. Unlike the latter, who is a classic bourgeois prostrating himself before the United States, Paz recognises that other possibilities have emerged.

The relative decline of the US, and the rise of China and Russia, mean that Bolivia could maintain its orientation toward the latter, possibly obtaining better conditions by getting help to escape the crisis. But Paz not only rejects the possibility of obtaining a loan from the IMF, he rejects the need to obtain any foreign loan, saying that the wealth to solve the crisis is found within the country. He is right about this, but if capitalism remains in place, as both candidates clearly desire, they have no hope of getting that wealth out of private hands, which have no interest in the country's development.

Accepting capitalism means playing by its rules, and austerity is an objective necessity for capital in the era of organic crisis in which we find ourselves. Irrespective of the form this will take, or the imperialist blocs towards which the country will orient itself, Bolivia's fundamental position as an exporter of raw materials to the world market will remain. We will continue to live with the grotesque situation of having an impoverished population in a country rich in resources.

It is also worth mentioning another element of Paz's appeal: his vice-presidential candidate. Edman Lara's image revolves around his opposition to corruption, particularly within the police force, from which he was expelled precisely for trying to expose corruption in the institution.

He definitely makes a better impression than Tuto's running mate, the son of a bourgeois who looted pension funds during the collapsed Banco Fassil. However, we must be clear: capitalism and corruption are twins; you cannot have one without the other. Any attempts by the ‘captain’ to eliminate corruption will inevitably be thwarted, no matter how sincere his intentions may be. Lara's previous attempts to fight corruption in the police culminated in his dismissal from the force. A similar outcome awaits him if he becomes too much of an obstacle within the state.

The only way to eliminate corruption is to overthrow capitalism and establish the dictatorship of the proletariat, based on the conditions clearly formulated by Lenin in The State and Revolution:

1. Election of all officials, with immediate recall if they fail to fulfill their function
2. No official should receive a salary higher than that of an average worker
3. No standing army, but the armed people (here is the solution to police corruption)
4. Rotation of state administration tasks. (“Let every cook be prime minister and every prime minister be a cook”)

This is, fundamentally, the programme of the socialist revolution, and it is the only way forward for the masses of Bolivia. MAS came to power after several years of immense revolutionary struggles in the country, which on more than one occasion could have overthrown capitalism and opened the way to proletarian revolution. Yet in the absence of a revolutionary leadership with a clear program, MAS emerged as the only way to solve the pressing problems of the masses.

The epoch of reformism that began in 2006 is now definitely coming to an end. It is essential to learn the lessons of the last 25 years, to prepare for the struggles ahead and not repeat the same mistakes. Whoever wins the second round, the living conditions and rights won in the past period will have to be defended through struggle.

The interests of the capitalists are completely opposed to those of the working class: if one wins, the other must lose. These elections are a victory for capital, which will secure solid representation in the state, but it is a Pyrrhic victory: in reality, the candidates going to the second round have a relatively weak support base.

Paz obtained 1.7 million votes, and Tuto 1.4 million, out of a total of 6.9 million. The class war continues, and it will not end until the workers have taken power. History does not happen in vain, and the Bolivian proletariat will learn valuable lessons in the coming period. It is the duty of all communists to accompany them every step of the way and fight shoulder to shoulder, preparing the forces for the final victory.