Ecuador: Noboa's reactionary referendum defeated

In a surprising defeat, the Ecuadorian people have overwhelmingly rejected the constitutional referendum proposed by right-wing President Daniel Noboa.

[Originally published in Spanish at americasocialista.org]

The first three questions were a referendum to amend the current constitution. The fourth was a popular consultation to draft a new constitution. The proposals were as follows:

A. Remove the ban on military bases on Ecuadorian territory.

B. End the use of public money to finance political parties.

C. Reduce the number of deputies in the National Assembly from 151 to 73.

D. Convene a Constituent Assembly to draft a new Constitution.

All of the proposals were rejected with around 60 percent of voters opposing them. Voter turnout was 80 percent. All provinces voted against the proposals, except Tungurahua – Noboa's electoral stronghold. Even in Tungurahua, support in the referendum was significantly lower than Noboa obtained in the second round of the elections in 2025, when he won 78 percent.

This was a defeat for Noboa’s Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN), which thought victory was assured. Noboa refused to show his face on the night of the defeat. Just hours after the loss was announced, Niels Olsen, President of the National Assembly, took the floor and said, “We will continue to fight tirelessly for the country you deserve, with the tools we have.”

The referendum was defeated by a massive vote from workers and peasants led by the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), former president Rafael Correa’s Citizen Revolution Movement (RC), and the United Workers' Front (FUT), among others.

The number of votes in favour of the proposals was similar to that obtained by Noboa in the first round of the presidential elections (4.5 million). The ruling party's campaign was characterised by a total absence of any kind of debate or explanation of the reasons for the constitutional change or what it would entail. This led the population to fear the worst, and hardly anyone was convinced apart from the party’s existing supporters.

Subverting the 2008 Constitution

All the questions on the ballot were aimed at subverting the 2008 Constitution implemented by Rafael Correa's government. This is one of the most progressive constitutions in Latin America, and it was achieved after years of revolutionary movements and insurrections. It prohibited mining in protected areas, decriminalised drugs, recognised same-sex relationships and banned foreign military bases on its territory, to name but a few of its reforms.

Correa and the RC have suffered electoral defeats both because of broken promises stemming from their acceptance of the rules of the capitalist system, and because of sectarianism within the movement, which divided the vote and led to Noboa's victory. But even though correísmo has suffered a setback, the 2008 Constitution is still seen as something to be defended.

Poverty is rampant in Ecuador, the murder rate is reaching historic highs, and the country's wealth is being siphoned off. The referendum was not seen as a simple question about the constitution, but as a rejection of Noboa's presidency as a whole.

Noboa recently offered a guided tour of former US military bases to Kristy Noem / Image: public domain

The first question in the referendum aimed to end the ban on foreign military bases on Ecuadorian territory. Noboa recently offered a guided tour of the former US military bases in the coastal cities of Manta and Salinas to the US Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristy Noem. This was done in order to assess the infrastructure for possible future bases. Last year, he stated: “In a transnational conflict, we need a national and international response.”

However, reading between the lines, he was not only referring to an abstract ‘security response’. This was part of Noboa's increasing attempts to balance between the United States and China.

Ecuador is one of the Latin American countries most closely linked to China. Despite being the seventh most populous country in South America, it receives the third largest amount of Chinese investment. Noboa's first diplomatic trip was to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing. China has been Ecuador's main financier since 2009, and it was the third South American country to sign a free trade agreement with China, after Peru and Chile. Ecuadorian exports to China have increased a hundredfold in the last 20 years, reaching $5 billion in 2024.

More recently, China has taken on an increasingly active role in protecting its investments. It donated $17 million to companies in the province of Pichincha affected by strikes led by indigenous people, when diesel subsidies ended. This is an indirect way of weakening the strike and strengthening the position of the employers.

At the same time, Noboa is heavily dependent on US diplomatic and military support. Noboa himself is a US citizen and wants to negotiate to reduce tariffs. The referendum on military bases was probably an attempt to counterbalance their relationship with China, in order to please the US administration. Noboa clearly considers himself a clever guy who wants to play chess with world politics. Now his brilliant plan has fallen flat and he has nothing to show for it.

What is a constitution?

Proposals B and C were solely intended to undermine small parties, which have 20 members out of a total of 151, or 13 percent of the National Assembly. The proposed system, with fewer National Assembly members and no public funding for parties, favours large established parties such as Noboa's ADN. Small parties representing peasants and rural workers would be ruined by both changes.

The last and most controversial point was the convening of a constituent assembly to create a new constitution. Noboa had been extremely secretive about what the objectives of this assembly would be. He had said that the constitution was too lenient on drug traffickers, stating that “we are rebuilding the country they left on its knees, the country they turned into a cradle of drug trafficking.”

The lack of a clear plan led workers to believe that the 2008 constitution would be stripped of all its progressive content. In fact, Noboa’s government wanted a blank cheque. At the beginning of the campaign, the president even mentioned that a new constitution could be drafted using artificial intelligence.

All the points in Noboa's referendum were totally reactionary. But, as Lenin said at the end of the 1905 revolution: “What is a constitution? A sheet of paper with the people’s rights recorded on it. What is the guarantee of these rights being really recognised? It lies in the strength of those classes of the people that have become aware of those rights, and have been able to win them.”

The strength of the Ecuadorian people does not lie in this almost 20-year-old piece of paper, but in the mass organisations that mobilised to defeat Noboa. This is the real lesson to be drawn from this victory. It will now be much more difficult for Noboa to touch the Constitution, as he has shown exactly where his government stands and how weakly it governs.

But none of this will stop the oligarchy’s president. A few days after the defeat in the referendum, Noboa travelled to the US to discuss with his masters how he can continue with the same subservient policies that do nothing but harm the Ecuadorian people.

Workers’, peasants’, indigenous and youth organisations must use this blow to Noboa at the ballot box to rebuild a broad protest movement against the government.