‘Dark Indonesia’: a prelude to much bigger and explosive events

Once again, the students have put themselves at the forefront of a movement against the government’s attacks on the people. On 17 February, tens of thousands of university students across Indonesia took to the streets to protest the government’s recent austerity measures. A series of demonstrations followed over the next few days, spreading from one city to another. The movement culminated in a national day of action on 20 February.

The movement adopted the hashtag #IndonesiaGelap or ‘Dark Indonesia’, taking a jab at the government’s slogan ‘Indonesia Emas’ or ‘Golden Indonesia’. ‘Dark Indonesia’ expresses the widespread sentiment among the masses that the nation is entering a dark period under the leadership of the recently elected Prabowo.

Stability?

Barely four months into his term, Prabowo’s government has already been rocked by a mass movement. This is in stark contrast to the confidence the ruling class had had following his election in November and the smooth transition of power from his predecessor, Jokowi.

Prabowo not only secured a landslide victory in the presidential election but was also able to form a super parliamentary coalition, including almost all political parties – even the recently formed Labour Party. His coalition, the ‘Advanced Indonesia Coalition Plus’ (KIM Plus), controls 470 out of 580 parliamentary seats, or 81 percent. The only party outside this coalition is the PDI-P, with 110 seats. However, PDI-P has made it clear that it will not become an opposition. Instead, it seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach, positioning itself to remain aligned with the government as long as it remains politically viable, but ready to distance itself at the first sign of trouble. 

Barely four months into his term, Prabowo’s government has already been rocked by a mass movement / Image: David Wadie Fisher-Freberg, Wikimedia Commons

The ruling coalition controls not only the national parliament but also the provincial parliaments. In last month’s nationwide provincial elections, it won a majority in 25 out of 38 provinces – about two-thirds of the total. Its grip on power seems uncontestable.

A recent survey by Kompas newspaper in January showed that nearly 81 percent of Indonesians approved of Prabowo’s government after its first 100 days in office. This is the highest 100-day approval rating ever recorded by Kompas. For comparison, President Jokowi’s approval rating in January 2015 – following his highly euphoric election – reached only 65.1 percent after his first 100 days in office. There are indeed many reasons why the ruling class should feel confident in the stability of this government and its ability to carry out the policies needed to address the crisis of capitalism.

However, beneath this apparent stability, there is growing discontent that isn’t reflected in the ballot boxes or polls. Prabowo has been forced to tread carefully since he took office.

The first sign of trouble for Prabowo appeared as early as August, just a few months before his inauguration. The masses, led by students, took to the streets to protest parliament’s undemocratic amendment of election laws so that Jokowi’s youngest son could run for governor of Jakarta. The ruling class did not expect such strong opposition, and the nationwide demonstrations succeeded in forcing parliament to backtrack. Prabowo had to distance himself from Jokowi’s ambition to propel his youngest son’s political career. This marked the first major victory of the masses in recent memory.

Prabowo’s government has inherited massive debt from Jokowi, who, during his two terms, splurged on infrastructure projects aimed at attracting foreign investments. Yet, Prabowo’s administration still needs to take on more debt to sustain economic growth. He has planned to increase the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio from the current level of 40 percent to 50 percent.

The problem is that the era of cheap money has ended. The cost of borrowing money has risen everywhere. No lenders would entertain the idea of extending more credit to Indonesia unless it demonstrates the necessary ‘fiscal discipline’ to be able to pay them back. ‘Fiscal discipline’ here means increased tax revenues and cuts to what they consider unnecessary spending, particularly social spending. Prabowo’s recent policies have focused on exactly this question of enabling the government to stretch its debt. 

In December, just two months into his presidency, Prabowo announced a plan to boost state revenue by hiking value-added tax (VAT) from 11 percent to 12 percent, starting 1 January 2025. This unpopular move was immediately met with massive public opposition. An online petition against the VAT hike garnered 175,000 signatures within days. Sensing the ground beneath it shaking, the government abruptly retreated on the eve of the planned increase, announcing that the tax hike would apply only to luxury goods.

Having failed to increase tax revenues, the government put the state budget on the chopping block. It announced an ambitious plan to cut Rp 750 trillion (US$44 billion) from the budget in three rounds, amounting to nearly 20 percent of total state expenses. Nearly half of that, US$20 billion, will be used to fund Danantara, the newly created sovereign wealth fund.

Danantara is an investment vehicle and a super-holding company for Indonesian state-owned enterprises, managing more than US$900 billion worth of assets. With its huge asset base, Danantara ranks as the world’s fourth-largest sovereign fund, surpassing Saudi Arabia’s PIF and Singapore’s Temasek. It was created so that the government could access external financing – circumventing legal and economic constraints on fiscal deficits and debt – by leveraging state assets to borrow and deploying the profits of state-owned enterprises to “finance government projects”. 

What we are seeing here is exactly what is happening worldwide as a product of today’s crisis of overproduction. Because the capitalist class no longer wishes to invest, bourgeois states subsidise private investments, either directly or indirectly, and in some cases, even take over the role of investing. This is a textbook case of state intervention to rescue capitalism at the expense of the working class. But this time around, despite the hundreds of billions of dollars of state intervention that has pushed global debt to a historic level, the private sector still refuses to invest. This is because the crisis of overproduction is in full swing, and every attempt to overcome it only sets the stage for an even deeper crisis.

Austerity

The first round of the cuts took effect immediately in February, with Rp 300 trillion ($19 billion) slashed from the budget. There was no scalpel involved. The Labour Ministry’s budget was cut by 57 percent; public works by 55 percent; elementary education by 20 percent; higher education by 40 percent; the anti-corruption body, KPK, by 15 percent; the Ministry of Human Rights by 35 percent; and the Ministry of Cooperatives by 32 percent, among others. Nothing was spared. Such a drastic and immediate cut makes Elon Musk’s DOGE look like child’s play.

We have no sympathy for the state bureaucracies, known for their inefficiency and rampant corruption. Proponents of the cuts argue that these cuts will make the government bureaucracies more efficient. But in reality, the cuts are passed down to public sector workers and the working people.

Despite the government's assurances, these cuts have begun to negatively affect services for the working class / Image: public domain

Public sector workers have voiced their discontent openly, as this so-called ‘efficiency’ mainly affects their working conditions and has little to do with efficiency. A civil servant at the Ministry of Women’s Empowerment and Child Protection told a news outlet how her office has restricted the supply of drinking water and toilet paper for the workers. “We even have to pitch in to buy drinking water,” complained Kardiani. 

Most lights in the restrooms are now switched off, and the use of air conditioning and elevators is rationed. “Now at 4pm, the air conditioning must be turned off, and only one elevator remains operational. Sometimes, we even have to use the freight elevator,” she said. 

At many universities, professors have been instructed to limit their on-campus work to four hours and must finish the rest of their work from home to reduce electricity costs.

Most importantly, it is the lower-ranking civil servants who bear the brunt of these cuts. “Living costs are rising, but our earnings are stagnant. It’s frustrating… Our motivation has plummeted. We just want to do the bare minimum. What really crushes our spirit is the disparity in efficiency measures between higher-ranking officials and [other] staff,” Kardiani said.

For example, many public sector workers relied on government-provided transportation, which has now been cut. Meanwhile, higher-ranking officials continue to enjoy this perk, and are often chauffeured in luxury cars.

As a result of these cuts, there have been widespread layoffs of public sector workers. The government has denied this, claiming that these are mainly contract employees whose contracts will not be renewed. The reality is that an increasing number of public sector workers are on short-term contracts, with a precarious existence. They are the first to be let go.

Despite the government's assurances, these cuts have begun to negatively affect services for the working class. Indonesia’s public libraries are shortening their operating hours, and hundreds of journalists from state television and radio networks have had their contracts terminated – although these measures have been temporarily reversed due to public outcry. 

The public relations head of the state meteorology agency, whose budget was cut by 50 percent, admitted that this reduction could decrease the accuracy of weather, climate, earthquake and tsunami forecasts from 90 percent to 60 percent. It could also slow down tsunami early warning systems from 3 minutes to 5 minutes or more. In East Java, it was discovered that train crossings were left unattended as the watch guards, who work on contracts, were dismissed due to budget constraints. Future disasters are being prepared by these deep cuts, disasters that will hit the poor the most.

This attack has begun to shift the class consciousness of public sector workers, who have been one of the most conservative layers of the working class. Public sector employment has traditionally been regarded as an ‘iron rice bowl’, guaranteeing job security and a decent standard of living. However, in recent years, public sector workers have come under attack, and this ‘iron rice bowl’ has begun to rust and crack. Outsourcing and contract systems have become the norm in many state departments, replacing many regular employees who once enjoyed job security. This latest ‘efficiency’ drive is yet another blow, and it may not be long before the public sector workers begin to join the labour movement to defend their living standard. When this happens, they would be a force to be reckoned with.

‘Dark Indonesia’

The ‘Dark Indonesia’ movement against the cuts has been primarily led by the students. They also put forward a series of other demands, including free education, allowances for university lecturers, agrarian reforms, police reforms, and rejection of the military’s ‘dual function’ (‘dual function’ is a legacy of the New Order military dictatorship, where active military officers also play political roles), among others.

The ‘Dark Indonesia’ movement against the cuts has been primarily led by the students / Image: Hutomo, Wikimedia Commons

After almost a week of demonstrations, the ‘Dark Indonesia’ movement retreated. However, it is far from being defeated, as the students continue to enjoy widespread sympathy from the masses, though not their active participation – at least, not yet. As the impacts of this austerity begins to be felt by the workers, we will see layer after layer of the working class actively join the movement. Students can act as a catalyst, as they often do in Indonesia, but they alone cannot defeat the government and its attacks against the workers. The working class must take the helm of the struggle and ultimately use its most powerful weapon – strike action – to deliver a mortal blow to the regime. 

The regime currently feels confident after weathering this first storm, but its austerity budget is planting sticks of dynamite under its foundations. Even a minor accident which the masses perceive to be a result of the cuts, could ignite a mass movement powerful enough to bring down the government. The recent incident in Serbia, where the collapse of a train station canopy killed 15 people and triggered a mass uprising that ultimately toppled the Prime Minister, should serve as a stark warning to the regime. A mass movement of public sector workers could also be sparked by something as trivial as a lack of toilet paper in restrooms. There are simply more than enough ‘accidents’ waiting to happen that could give expression to this necessity.

Even though the ‘Dark Indonesia’ movement did not achieve its goal, there was no sign of demoralisation among the students. There is a growing radicalisation among the youth, who see only darkness ahead. University students, who after graduation usually make up the ‘middle class’, are facing a bleak future. Despite a decade of 5 percent annual economic growth, the number of people classified as middle class by the government – defined as those spending $122-$605 per month, who in reality are simply workers with decent incomes – has declined by 20 percent since 2018. Meanwhile, those living under the poverty line (spending less than $55 per month) and those considered ‘vulnerable to poverty’ (spending $55-$83 per month) have increased by 10 percent and 28 percent respectively. There is a widespread process of impoverishment affecting all layers of the working class, a process that is now being further accelerated by the austerity programme. This is a recipe for explosive class struggle, and the ‘Dark Indonesia’ movement is the first indication of that.

Capitalism demands that the youth and workers pay for the capitalist crisis. That is the essence of Prabowo’s austerity. The youth and workers, therefore, have no choice but to wage a determined struggle to end this decrepit and senile system. Capitalism is beyond repair – Indonesia is dark because capitalism itself is dark. The only programme that can snuff out this capitalist darkness is the program of socialism, the light that can lead humanity toward a new golden era.