Brazil: the 2026 presidential election, rare earths and the communists

In the elections of 2022, Lula received the votes of 60.3 million Brazilians (38.6 percent of the electorate). How many of these actually supported the political agenda of the coalition led by Lula cannot be known. What is certain is that more than 60 million Brazilians did not want Bolsonaro to remain in office as President of the Republic and went to the polls with the common goal of removing him.

A further 58.2 million (37.2 percent) supported Bolsonaro’s re-election, whilst 37.9 million (24.2 percent) did not support either candidate in the second round.

Almost four years on, new elections are approaching and the circus of bourgeois democracy is pitching its big top once again. What will the result be?

Jair Bolsonaro, the former president, who is hated by the majority of the population, is now convicted and in prison, but still has the support of a significant section of the electorate. His eldest son, Flavio, is a prospective candidate for the post he once held, and which is now occupied by Lula.

In the most recent polls, Lula appears to have a slight lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round and the two are technically level, but he is likely to lose to Flavio in the second round.

Many ask how it is possible that a government which was elected and formed with such a broad range of alliances could now be at risk of losing the election to a candidate as mediocre as the son of the convicted Jair Bolsonaro. It is precisely the breadth of these alliances and the politics that accompany them that help answer this question.

A government of the bourgeois order

The broad-based Lula-Alckmin government is the culmination of Lula’s policy of class conciliation.

A trade union leader and head of the largest workers’ party in Brazil’s history, Lula presents himself as a representative of the working class who advocates good relations with the bosses. Ever since his days as a trade unionist, Lula has maintained that everything can be resolved through a good conversation. 

But the class struggle is a struggle between antagonistic living forces. For the most part, the exploiting class imposes its interests on the exploited classes. The exploited can impose their interests to the extent that they organise their potential strength and convert it into concrete power. But when the leader of the exploited classes announces in advance that everything will be negotiated and that a satisfactory outcome will be reached for ‘both sides’, he is playing to ensure that nothing will change. That is, that the interests of the ruling class will prevail.

The broad-based Lula-Alckmin government is the culmination of Lula’s policy of class conciliation / Image: PSB Nacional 40, Wikimedia Commons

The Lula of today, as a ruler, is not very different from Lula the trade unionist. However, as a ruler, he goes beyond simply upholding the interests of the capitalists to the detriment of the workers. In the name of ‘governing for the whole of society’ (and not just for the working class), Lula has formed his government directly with parties, representatives and members of the bourgeoisie. He has even appointed Bolsonaro supporters to his ministries, such as André Fufuca, Silvio Costa Filho, and José Múcio Monteiro.

The economic policy of the Lula-Alckmin government, designed and led by Fernando Haddad, has perpetuated fiscal austerity at the expense of investment in social sectors. In other words, the bulk of tax revenue goes towards paying interest on the public debt, rather than towards the necessary investments to provide healthcare, education, housing, culture, leisure, etc. for all.

Submission to the imperialists

Today, Brazil is one of the main arenas of dispute between the capitals of the world’s imperialist bourgeoisies. In particular, over the last 15 years, the dispute between US and Chinese capital has intensified greatly on Brazilian soil, which is also contested by various European powers.

The Lula and Dilma governments have always adopted a more open stance towards all capital wishing to exploit Brazil. In this sense, just as Lula seeks to reconcile the interests of antagonistic classes in the class struggle, we can say that he also seeks to reconcile the interests of rival capitals in the inter-imperialist struggle.

Every time Lula speaks in defence of ‘multilateralism’, he is in fact defending Brazil’s right to be plundered by various imperialist powers simultaneously, and not just by the US. In doing so, he aims to gain some room for manoeuvre in negotiations with the various capitalists.

The Temer and Bolsonaro governments, on the other hand, proved far more subservient to direct US interests, even blocking Chinese investment in Brazil, particularly in the construction of major railways and in Brazilian nuclear projects.

China’s rise as an imperialist power has brought an end to the world order established by the US after the Second World War. This means we have entered a new era of open confrontation between imperialist powers, the likes of which we have not seen for 80 years.

Trade wars are a first manifestation of this. The US’ more aggressive behaviour – invading Venezuela, pressuring Panama, suffocating Cuba, attacking Iran, threatening to annex Greenland – is also a symptom of this new situation in which the defence of US hegemony is the order of the day for Washington. The ‘Shield of the Americas’ initiative and the so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ are confirmation of this.

That said, what was the real significance of Trump’s ‘tariff blow’ against Brazil in 2025? Much has been said about the Bolsonaro clan’s lobbying for Trump to put pressure on the Brazilian judiciary. There were also other issues raised in Trump’s letter, such as the defence of Big Tech’s interests. 

But it is important to remember that, in that letter, Trump was blatantly lying about a supposed US trade deficit with Brazil. The alleged reasons written in the letter are one thing, but the real reason, which was not written in the letter, is another thing entirely. This real reason has been stated on countless occasions by Trump himself: to pressure the Brazilian government to align itself with the US to the detriment of China!

At first, Lula’s reaction to Trump’s tariff hike was to respond with ‘reciprocity’. The mere fact that Lula hinted at a confrontation with US imperialism, that he made bold statements in favour of national sovereignty, was enough for him to see a slight improvement in his approval ratings in the polls at that time.

However, after Lula embraced Trump at the UN General Assembly, after Lula said that “there was chemistry” between him and Trump, the illusions that Lula could play an anti-imperialist role began to fade, and his stance shifted more openly towards submission to the dictates of the White House.

From then on, the Lula government made several overtures and statements suggesting that the US could exploit Brazil’s rare earth reserves. Some commitment behind closed doors may have been made in this regard between September and November, which would explain Trump’s change of stance and the withdrawal of a series of tariffs.

In February this year, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) granted a $565 million loan to the mining company Serra Verde, in Goiás, with ‘offtake’ clauses prioritising supply to American or aligned companies, limiting sales to China for up to 15 years.

Also in February, the ‘Vault Project’ was launched, with $10 billion from the EXIM Bank to secure critical minerals, including Brazilian rare earth and lithium projects; forums and diplomatic negotiations for bilateral agreements, with pressure to control production.

Over the last 15 years, the dispute between US and Chinese capital has intensified greatly on Brazilian soil / Image: own work

In March, the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, signed a memorandum of understanding with the US government (with the chargé d’affaires, Gabriel Escobar), in São Paulo. This focused on cooperation for exploration, research, capacity building and technology transfer, as part of the DFC’s $565 million financing for Serra Verde – which Caiado hailed as “the most important geo-economic agreement” of his administration, stating that “Goiás has already sealed the deal with the US”.

In April, USA Rare Earth announced the purchase of 100 percent of Serra Verde for $2.8 billion, with US government support, including a $1.6 billion investment and a 10 percent equity stake. On 22 April, PSOL MPs filed a complaint with the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) against Ronaldo Caiado, calling for the annulment of the sale of Serra Verde to USA Rare Earth, the opening of civil and criminal inquiries, and an investigation into his conduct. 

This is because he encroached upon powers exclusive to the federal government, such as international relations and the management of strategic minerals, by signing a memorandum with the US and handing over control of the only rare earths mine in operation outside Asia to a foreign company, constituting a ‘serious threat’ and a potential loss of Brazil’s strategic autonomy.

Also in April, two bills were tabled – one by MP Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB/DF) and the other by the new leader of the PT parliamentary group in the Federal Chamber of Deputies, MP Pedro Uczai (PT/SC) – proposing the creation of TerraBras, a state-owned company to manage the exploitation of Brazilian rare earth minerals. However, on 22 April, Lula convened a ministerial meeting and decided that the government would not support the creation of the state-owned company, prioritising the private sector.

With this, Lula signals that, like Ronaldo Caiado, he will serve the interests of the US, which is playing catch-up with China on this issue of rare earths.

Yielding to US pressure

But it is not only on the issue of rare earths that Lula has been yielding to pressure from Trump. After the US kidnapped Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and took direct control of Venezuelan oil with the full collaboration of Delcy Rodríguez’s government, Trump banned any country from sending oil to Cuba. Any country that did so would face new additional tariffs on imports to the US.

Cuba needs oil to generate electricity. No oil, no electricity. This could lead to the collapse of hospitals where patients depend on equipment to survive, the transport of goods, the production of pharmaceuticals, food, etc. The refrigeration of food and medicines would collapse, and within a few days, the population could face a humanitarian catastrophe, with millions of Cubans facing hunger and a shortage of vital resources.

For this reason, immediately, on 29 January, we launched a public campaign calling on Lula to send oil to Cuba. Following our campaign, the leadership of the Rio de Janeiro Oil Workers’ Union and subsequently the two national oil workers’ federations – the FUP and the FNP – began demanding that Lula send oil to Cuba. But Lula chose to bow to pressure from Trump rather than comply with the request from the Petrobras workers!

Lula still hasn’t sent any aid to the Cuban Revolution, even after Russia broke through Trump’s blockade by sending an oil tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of oil, which arrived in Cuba on 30 March.

It is worth remembering that when Lula was first elected president in 2002, even before taking office, he and his transition team organised for a Brazilian oil tanker to be sent to Caracas to aid Venezuela, which was facing a sabotage operation at PDVSA that had been blocking oil production to destabilise and lay the basis for a coup against the Chávez government.

Now, more than 23 years later, Lula seems much more susceptible to imperialist pressures than before.

Perhaps Lula had some hope that, by handing over rare earth minerals to the US and obeying Washington’s dictates in Latin America, he could secure Trump’s support for his candidacy in the October elections. 

With recent polls pointing to a possible electoral victory for Flavio Bolsonaro over Lula in the second round and Trump’s potential support for Jair Bolsonaro’s son’s candidacy, Lula was left with no choice but to radicalise his rhetoric in an attempt to win back votes from younger segments of the electorate.

That is why Lula has been more critical of US actions in recent weeks, particularly regarding the war in Iran. He participated in the summit in defence of democracy in Barcelona, alongside Spanish President Pedro Sánchez. That is also why he is signalling a shift to the left by introducing a bill to end the 6x1 work schedule [six day work week with one day rest]. But all this rhetoric contrasts with the policies he maintains, such as fiscal austerity or his refusal to support the creation of the state-owned company TerraBras.

Lula keeps an eye on the daily polls to assess how to adjust his rhetoric. This is not a real change in stance, but rather the guidance of campaign strategists to win over sectors of the electorate. His government remains firmly committed to the interests of the imperialists – all of them.

Lula seeks to serve all the owners of capital. But, as we explained, there is no longer a gentlemen’s agreement among the imperialists. Therefore, there is less and less room for Lula to act this way. Increasingly, the US, China, and the European imperialists will demand their share at the expense of the shares of others. Lula will be forced more and more to take sides with one or the other. Apparently, when it comes to rare earths, he has been yielding to the US.

Lula seeks to serve all the owners of capital. But, as we explained, there is no longer a gentlemen’s agreement among the imperialists / Image: Ricardo Stuckert, Wikimedia Commons

Now, the US wants Brazil to cancel the scientific cooperation agreements with China in Bahia and Paraíba. The ‘United States House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party’ produced a report in March 2026 titled China in Our Backyard, Volume 2: Pulling Latin America Into China’s Orbit. In this report, they accuse China of maintaining two military espionage bases on Brazilian territory: the Tucano Ground Station in Bahia and the China-Brazil Joint Laboratory for Radio Astronomy and Technology in Paraíba.

The Lula administration, through its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mauro Vieira, has categorically denied that these two partnerships amount to Chinese military and espionage bases on Brazilian soil.

Lula is trying to please everyone – or rather, the Chinese and the Americans. How long will he be able to play this game? We’ll see…

What is the way out for Brazil?

What is the way out for Brazil? This question, which appears increasingly in Brazilian public debate, is a poorly framed one from the perspective of those defending the interests of the working class.

Whenever people speak of ‘Brazil’s interests’ or ‘national interests’, they are referring to the interests of the Brazilian ruling class. The interests of the Brazilian working class are not the same as those of the Brazilian ruling class. In most cases, they are even opposing interests. However, when it comes to confronting imperialist oppression, the interests of the working class and the Brazilian bourgeoisie may coincide, but not always.

The fact is that at least since the military dictatorship (1964-1985), the ruling class in Brazil has openly placed itself at the service of US imperialism. It is a subordinate class that generally profits greatly from this subordination. That is why a large portion of Brazilian business leaders see no problem in supporting a presidential candidate who salutes the US flag.

Thus, for a large sector of the Brazilian bourgeoisie, particularly the rentier class, there is no interest in any project for the industrialisation of Brazil. For the agribusiness barons, it is perfectly acceptable for Brazil to fulfil the role of a supplier of raw materials to the imperialist powers and to import high value-added products.

But this keeps the Brazilian working class enslaved by underemployment. It is increasingly pointless for a young person to pursue higher education, as there is no significant supply of high-skilled jobs in Brazil.

That is why, today, a plan for Brazil’s industrialisation is of greater interest to the working class than to the national bourgeoisie itself. But precisely for this reason, such a project can only be led by the working class. In other words, only a government of the workers and for the workers can carry out such a change.

And would this be possible through bourgeois elections? Only if bourgeois elections take place in the context of a pre-revolutionary or revolutionary situation. Something that is not so far from developing in Brazil.

Communists and elections

We communists must field candidates whenever possible in bourgeois elections, to compete for influence over the workers against bourgeois parties that present themselves in a populist manner, and against reformist workers’ parties that play into the hands of the bourgeoisie.

Brazilian legislation makes it very difficult for independent groups to form legal parties to contest elections. In this scenario, despite the great diversity of organisations claiming to represent the working class, only seven of these are parties eligible to participate in elections in Brazil. This includes: the Workers’ Party (PT);  the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL); the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB); the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB); Popular Unity (UP); the United Socialist Workers’ Party (PSTU); and the Workers’ Cause Party (PCO).

The PT was born as an independent workers’ party out of the major workers’ strikes of the late 1970s and the struggle to end the military dictatorship. But its leadership has increasingly adapted to bourgeois institutions, and the party has degenerated. Although its social base is in the working class, its leadership implements a bourgeois political programme of subordination to imperialism.

The PSOL, which emerged as a critical dissident faction of the PT following the pension counter-reform imposed by Lula’s first administration (2003-2006), has in recent years increasingly subordinated itself to the PT and, starting in 2023, to Lula’s broad-based coalition government. Although it has a left wing composed of some political currents and independent representatives, such as federal deputy Glauber Braga, the PSOL as a party does not present itself today as an alternative to the PT and will support Lula’s candidacy starting in the first round.

The PCdoB, a Maoist splinter group from the 1960s of the former PCB, has fully adapted to ‘Lulaism’ for decades and is more subordinate to and integrated into the government than the PSOL.

The PCO is a family-run sect that cannot be taken seriously by the working class.

As for the PCB, the UP, and the PSTU, these are three parties with little influence or reach among the working class and Brazilian youth. Electorally, they are practically invisible (and are made even more invisible by bourgeois electoral rules) and, for this reason, are not considered a real option by the working class. Their candidacies serve only to build their own organisations and do not represent a real political alternative for the working class today.

There is a historical need today for a presidential candidacy that positions itself to the left of Lula’s candidacy, with an openly communist programme to win over the millions of workers and young people who, unable to see a serious alternative, end up falling into scepticism or the populist rhetoric of the far right.

In recent times, we have all witnessed the rise of Jones Manoel as a promoter of communist ideas in Brazil, with millions of followers on social media. However much we may disagree with some of Jones Manoel’s theoretical premises and analyses, the fact is that on the central issue we agree: only the organised working class can open a way out of the current situation, by taking political power into its own hands and expropriating the capitalists’ major means of production. In other words, we want a socialist revolution to build a communist Brazil.

Therefore, it seems obvious to us that the Brazilian working class’ historical need today for a communist presidential candidate – as an alternative to the left of Lula – could be met by Jones Manoel running for president. It was the famous São Paulo rapper Mano Brown who first raised this proposal publicly and immediately garnered massive support online.

A presidential candidacy by Jones Manoel, with a revolutionary communist programme, should garner the support of the left-wing currents of the PSOL, the PCB’s activists, the UP, the PSTU, and a number of organisations that are not legally eligible to participate in the electoral process, including our own RCI-Brazil. Even part of the PT’s more left-wing electorate could support a candidacy like this, as was in fact stated by Representative Renato Freitas of the PT in Paraná. And, more than that, it could give hope to millions of young workers who are today seeking a radical solution to the situation.

The PSOL leadership chose not to present an alternative candidate to Lula once again (the first time they did this was in the 2022 elections). In 2022, we fought for Glauber Braga to be the PSOL’s presidential candidate, but the majority of the party leadership blocked this possibility in favour of supporting Lula starting from the first round.

In light of this, the parties that could have offered their ticket for Jones Manoel to run in the presidential election (PCB, UP, and PSTU) succumbed to sectarianism and refused. The PSTU even made its ticket available for Jones to run for federal deputy in Pernambuco, but not for president.

Flavio Bolsonaro represents the most reactionary sector of the Brazilian bourgeoisie / Image: Senado Federal, Wikimedia Commons

Furthermore, apparently, Jones Manoel himself preferred to run for federal deputy in Pernambuco (using the PSOL ticket). This is his right, and he already has our support. However, we believe that from a strategic standpoint, it would be wiser to launch his pre-candidacy for president, and if no party were to lend him its ticket (through what is called ‘democratic affiliation’), then, in July, he could shift his pre-campaign to that of a federal deputy. This could spark a discussion among millions of workers and young people about a communist programme for Brazil throughout the first half of 2026.

Programme for a Communist Brazil

Even with all the criticism we level at the policies implemented by Lula, in the absence of a viable candidate to the left of him, the situation that arises is one of ‘class against class’. Despite his alliances and policies, this means to vote for Lula in order to defeat the far-right candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro. This is how the majority of the working class views the situation. Calling for a null vote or a vote for one of the invisible left-wing candidates in the first round would be incomprehensible to the working class.

Some sectarian groups will likely advocate ‘none of the above’ in the presidential elections in order to maintain ‘clean hands’. This would be an easy tactic to choose, but it would not help the working class advance in any way.

Flavio Bolsonaro represents the most reactionary sector of the Brazilian bourgeoisie, and has the support of the most reactionary sectors of US imperialism. It is in the historical interest of the Brazilian working class to confront these sectors. If, to do so, the only weapon available is Lula’s current candidacy in alliance with certain sectors of the bourgeoisie, that is the weapon the working class will use. And the Brazilian working class will have to gain practical experience to understand that it is necessary to forge new, more efficient weapons.

In the absence of a candidacy to the left of Lula that is visible to the working class, it falls to us to intervene in the electoral process by promoting our Programme for a Communist Brazil and calling for critical support for Lula’s candidacy to defeat the candidacy of Flavio Bolsonaro.

More than fighting for votes, our main objective during the electoral process must be to help the most advanced elements of the working class and the youth come to the conclusion that they should dedicate their lives to building the necessary instrument to carry out the socialist transformation of Brazil and the world. That is why, first and foremost, we must promote the Programme for a Communist Brazil! Come fight with us to build the Revolutionary Communist International and fight for a communist Brazil! Get organised today!