Are we facing World War III?

As I write these lines, the headlines of the newspapers are dominated by the shock announcement that Russia would be “at war” with the United States and its allies if they lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range western missiles for the purpose of deep strikes on Russian territory.

Suddenly, without any warning, the public is being made aware of a shocking fact – that the further continuation and escalation of the Ukrainian conflict confronts them with the threat of nuclear annihilation.

For the overwhelming majority of people in the West, the news has come like a thunderbolt from a clear blue sky. Surely, things cannot be as bad as that? Why were we not told about this before? 

But for anyone who has seriously followed the unfolding of events, it comes as no surprise at all. 

Most people have quite short memories, and politicians appear to have no memories whatsoever of facts, when the facts do not suit them. Have we forgotten the fact that Russia is not just a very powerful state with a huge army, but also the world’s biggest nuclear power, equipped with long-range missiles capable of hitting any target on the planet?

Either the leaders of the western world have forgotten these facts – in which case they are fools and unfit for high office; or they are well aware of them – in which case they are guilty of criminal recklessness that places in danger the lives of millions of people, and they ought to be either placed in prison or committed to the nearest available mental hospital.

But what is the explanation for this latest alarming development?

Does Putin want war with the West?

The first explanation that is frequently put forward in the media is very simple. Vladimir Putin is a mad dictator who wants to conquer the world. If he is not defeated in Ukraine, he will attack Europe and reduce us all to servitude. Given that he is mentally deranged and incapable of making rational decisions, it is useless to even think about negotiating with him.

We hear arguments like this with tedious regularity from so-called ‘experts on Russia’. But this is an explanation that explains nothing. Of course, the psychology of individual leaders can, and does, play a significant role in the development of events, including wars. We see this very clearly in the cases of Ukraine and Israel.

However, such factors can never fully explain the most serious actions of nations, and least of all on the question of war. In order to understand this, it is necessary to uncover the secret springs that propel nations into war, that is to say, their material interests.

But even if we attempt to find explanations for the present situation through the shadowy realm of individual psychoanalysis (always a risky proposition) we will immediately see that the alleged psychology of the man in the Kremlin does not at all correspond to the known facts.

Let us make it clear in advance that we have absolutely no illusions in Vladimir Putin. We do not – and never have – supported him in any way. He is, in fact, a counter-revolutionary enemy of the working class, both in Russia and internationally. 

Putin stands for the interests of the Russian oligarchy – that corrupt gang of businessmen who have enriched themselves by stealing the collective property of the Soviet Union. There is not an atom of progressive content in his policies, therefore, either in peace or in war, either inside or outside the frontiers of Russia.

It follows that, whatever policy he is pursuing in Ukraine, it can never serve the interests of the working people either of Ukraine or Russia. However, it is equally true that the reactionary clique in Kyiv does not stand for the interests of the Ukrainian people, which are being cruelly sacrificed as a pawn in the cynical policies pursued by the United States and NATO.

Is Putin irrational?

The fact that Putin is reactionary does not necessarily mean that he is either insane or irrational. On the contrary, everything we know about this individual points in the direction of a very cunning man who knows exactly what he is doing and who always bases himself on conclusions that may be cynical, but are always the result of cold calculation.

One looks on in absolute astonishment to see how the policies of Washington are being determined by the antics of two desperate men / Image: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Flickr

By contrast, the ignorant and incredibly stupid men and women who pass for politicians and diplomats in the USA and Europe present a picture of complete ineptitude and incompetence. 

These ladies and gentlemen are just as cynical and manipulative as the man in the Kremlin; but unlike him, they are not only irrational, but incapable of facing facts at all. Their constant blundering in world affairs shows that they are incapable of elaborating anything resembling a coherent plan of action or strategy.

Instead, they merely react to events empirically, evidently unable even to put one foot in front of another without stumbling and falling into a ditch. As a result, their policies in Ukraine have ended in complete disaster, and their inability to put a stop to the reckless provocations of Netanyahu threatens to drag them into an even bigger disaster in the Middle East.

One looks on in absolute astonishment to see how the policies of Washington are being determined by the antics of two desperate men – one in Kyiv and the other in Jerusalem. These men, who are actually completely dependent on the money and arms supplied by Washington, evidently feel free to pursue policies that are in direct contradiction to the strategic interests of US imperialism.

At this point, indeed, although it defies the powers of the imagination, the puppets seem to have broken the strings and are dancing about freely according to their own caprice. Incredibly, the tail wags the dog!

At first sight, it may seem that this fact contradicts our earlier statement that it is impossible to understand wars as the result of individual psychology. However, there are times when individual psychology is merely the expression of the very definite material interests of certain individuals. The two things become completely inseparable.

Let us examine this strange phenomenon more closely. We shall return to our starting point later, that is: to Putin’s ultimatum to the West, which will by then, we hope, become at least a little clearer.

The three most dangerous men in the planet

At the very centre of the terrifying vortex of world events, there stand two men. They live thousands of miles apart. They speak different languages. They bear very little resemblance to one another, either physically or intellectually. One might say that they are entirely dissimilar.

Yet, in one respect, they are identical. They share a common obsession – one that has very serious implications for the world. Most men and women, if asked what their greatest wish for the world is, would doubtless answer in one word: ‘peace’. But peace is something that is very far from the minds of these two individuals. On the contrary, war has become the central aim of their existence. They fervently desire it. For with it, they are everything, and without it, they are nothing.

The names of these two gentlemen are Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelensky and Binyamin (‘Bibi’) Netanyahu.

For entirely separate reasons, which we have dealt with in separate articles, the wars in which they have become entangled are not going well. 

Despite its colossal military superiority, in almost one year, Israel has failed to secure the release of the hostages or to eliminate Hamas as a fighting force.

The present wave of popular fury inside Israel is threatening the future of Netanyahu and his government. But Netanyahu has no intention of surrendering, because he knows that that will mean the collapse of his government. He also faces trial on corruption charges. He therefore wishes to fight to the bitter end, regardless of the consequences.

These consequences will be extremely serious for the entire world. The war with Iran that he so fervently desires and is determined to provoke will not be the same as the one-sided bloodbath against a far weaker enemy in Gaza.

Iran is a powerful military state with a battle-hardened and highly motivated army, and a large stockpile of missiles and other sophisticated weapons. And if it does not already possess nuclear weapons, it will be very close to obtaining them.

Iran has many allies in the area. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen; as well as many other smaller, but even more belligerent groups in other countries, all of whom are eager to attack Israel by all means at their disposal.

The extent of Iran’s missile power was demonstrated only a few months ago, when it launched a shower of missiles against targets in Israel in retaliation for yet another provocation.

Under pressure from the United States and other countries, on that occasion the Iranians gave prior warning of the attack and limited their targets so as not to provoke an outright war with Israel. But the next time – and there will inevitably be a next time – they will show no such restraint.

But there is another dimension to this. Iran has recently forged very close links with Russia and China. Thus, in the event of a widening of the conflict, which will inevitably involve (at the very least) Lebanon and Yemen, the inevitable US intervention will certainly be countered by the Russians, and possibly the Chinese, providing assistance to Iran.

The implications of this scenario should be evident to anybody. Imagine, for instance, if an American aircraft carrier was to be sunk by a missile made in Russia. The danger of an open collision between the two great powers is implicit in such a situation.

However, a far more immediate danger is posed by the second in our rogues’ gallery of notorious warmongers. Enter President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Warmonger-in-Chief number two

Recently, British television has been showing a three-part series about the life of Volodymyr Zelensky. The timing of this piece of adulatory television is naturally no accident. On the contrary, it is part of a carefully planned propaganda offensive, designed to act as a cover-up for the real offensive being planned in secret by politicians in London and Washington.

The case of Zelensky is different to that of Netanyahu, yet it is also the same / Image: own work

The first part of the series depicts the young Volodymyr as a man of peace who started out as a successful comedian, acting the part of a fictitious president on television. It seems that as a comedian, he was a great success. Given his subsequent development, one somehow wishes that he had remained in that role.

The former peaceful, fun-loving comedian has long since ceased to be funny. Together with his bosses in Washington and London, he is prolonging a bloody and senseless conflict in which Ukraine is losing, according to some accounts, as many as 2,000 men every day, killed or wounded. 

And he is now arguably the greatest danger to peace in the whole world.

The case of Zelensky is different to that of Netanyahu, yet it is also the same. After nearly three years of war, he is now staring defeat in the face. The earlier foolish propaganda that presented a Ukrainian victory over Russia as a virtual inevitability has ended, as we predicted, in a pile of ashes.

After the failure of his idiotic gamble in Kursk, Zelensky is now a desperate man. And desperate men do desperate things. He shouts and screams at his generals, accusing them of telling him lies. In fact, he betrays all the symptoms of a man who has lost all contact with reality.

It is always difficult to interpret the actions of an unbalanced mind, but one thing is glaringly obvious: only one option remains for Zelensky to win the war. That is to provoke a wider war into which the United States will be dragged. The Americans could then do all the fighting on Ukraine’s behalf.

For a long time, Zelensky has been waging a noisy campaign, demanding that the Americans give him permission to use long-range US missiles for deep strikes inside Russia. Naturally, the warmongering imbeciles in London are all in favour of that lunatic proposal. But until now, it was rejected by the Americans, who are justifiably terrified of the Russian response.

It is exactly the same option that is available to Netanyahu: he is deliberately provoking Iran in the hope of sparking off a general war in the Middle East, which will compel the Americans to intervene in order to ‘save Israel’.

That is another way of saying: they are trying to start World War III.

Warmonger-in-Chief number three

The third of our gang of dangerous warmongers is a different case altogether. He now plays the role of the invisible man. But that is not to say that his role in world events is entirely played out.

An embittered old man who was forced into what he sees as a premature and unjustified retirement by people he considered to be his one-time friends, who ended up giving him the same gentle push that in olden days helped Julius Caesar to finally make up his mind.

Nevertheless, Joe Biden did not go as quietly as his Roman predecessor. He fought tooth and nail against being pushed out, and only grudgingly surrendered when his financial backers threatened to withdraw their support. That proved to be a far superior weapon than any dagger, and far less offensive to the sensitivities of public opinion.

Even then, whilst he acquiesced and stood down as the Democratic candidate in the November elections, he stubbornly refused to give up the office of President of the United States. This means that, for a period of several months up to January 2025, the most powerful office in the world will remain occupied by a failed politician, full of resentment and a burning desire for revenge, and obsessed with the question of Ukraine.

The thought that the finger of a bitter and angry old man is on a button that can send the entire world to Kingdom Come is not an entirely consoling one. It is no secret that Biden is completely obsessed with his hatred of Russia. It is clear that he played a leading role in pushing Ukraine into an unwinnable war against a powerful neighbour by insisting on its joining NATO. And there is absolutely no indication that he has changed his position on this – or anything else.

Since he has been sidelined by his former colleagues, he appears to spend much of his time playing golf or lying in the sun on the beach. Yet his mind must be seething all the time. How can he teach all his enemies a lesson they will never forget? He is, after all, still the President, with all the powers of the US President.

Realising this fact, some people are still trying to get the support of Joe Biden for things that other politicians are reluctant to go along with. One of these is Volodymyr Zelensky, who has long relied heavily on the unconditional support of the man in the White House.

He seeks discussions with his old friend Joe Biden. And what do you imagine they are talking about?

To grant or not to grant – that is the question!

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer also lost no time in jumping on a plane and crossing the Atlantic for talks with the man who still calls himself US President. The content of these talks is as yet unclear, but there is no doubt at all that they will be discussing the vexed question of letting Ukraine use long-range western missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

Yet Ukraine has been attacking targets inside Russia for some time. It is using its own weapons to hit targets far into the Russian interior, launching one of the biggest drone attacks on Russian soil in the war on Tuesday, targeting multiple regions, including Moscow. In fact, these attacks were mainly for propaganda purposes. Their actual impact on Russian war production was negligible, and the effect on the war itself was precisely zero. 

These attacks were no more than pinpricks, particularly compared to the devastating attacks inflicted by the Russians on Ukraine. But there is no way that the Ukrainians could ever hope to launch attacks on the same scale.

The Pentagon has made no secret of the fact that they are opposed to granting permission for the Ukrainians to fire US missiles deep inside Russia. The US intelligence services have adopted exactly the same position. This clearly indicates the existence of a serious split in the administration and the state. 

The Pentagon has made no secret of the fact that they are opposed to granting permission for the Ukrainians to fire US missiles deep inside Russia / Image: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Flickr

But all this does not seem to make any impact on the wooden brain of the President. And he can still overrule his generals and intelligence chiefs. He has the backing of a small group of extreme warmongering elements within the Administration, for whom all talk of peace deals and negotiations with Russia are complete anathema. 

In point of fact, Ukraine has been using western missiles to strike targets inside Russia for some time. Towns like Belgorod have been routinely bombed, shelled and hit by drones. But the agreement to use long-distance missiles such as the British Storm Shadow and the American ATACMs for strikes deep inside Russia is another question altogether.

What is not generally realised is that these highly sophisticated weapons cannot be used without the active participation of western personnel – for intelligence, operation and servicing. In other words, this implies the direct involvement of western military personnel in a war against Russia. This fact has been deliberately ignored by the mass media in the West, although it was pointed out very clearly by Putin months ago. He reiterated the same point only yesterday:

“We are not talking about allowing or not allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons,” he said. “We are talking about deciding whether NATO countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not.”

This would be, without a shadow of a doubt, an act of war by NATO member states – a fact that would necessarily lead to a declaration of war by Russia.

This reckless act of escalation by the West makes no sense whatsoever from a military point of view. The targets mentioned by the Ukrainians have long since been moved further inland, placing them beyond the range of both Storm Shadows and ATACMs. The only targets would therefore be civilian targets. This would cause serious political problems for the West, without bringing any military advantages whatsoever.

Nor is it at all clear that the promised missiles will ever arrive in Ukraine. The stocks of both Storm Shadows and ATACMs are presently running very low, a reflection of the fact that the arsenals of the West have become seriously depleted by the constant demands by the Kyiv government. 

This means that the supply of missiles will be so scarce that it will be impossible for the Ukrainians to launch a serious missile attack against targets in Russia. Moreover, in order to reach targets deep inside Russian territory, the aforesaid missiles and their launchers would have to be stationed so close to the frontier that they would be sitting ducks for the Russians to destroy with missile and drone attacks and even artillery.

The US and its allies have been attempting to blame Russia for ‘escalating’ the conflict by obtaining ballistic missiles from Iran. Word of the alleged transfers from Iran began to emerge over the weekend. Lammy called them part of “a troubling pattern that we’re seeing. It is definitely a significant escalation.”

The Iranians have denied this, and it does not make much sense, considering the fact that Russia already possesses huge stocks of missiles and other weapons and is far outstripping the West in the production of arms and ammunition in general.

The real escalation, as usual, is coming from NATO and the Americans.

A picture of Armageddon

The problem facing NATO is easily stated. The war has reached such a point now that the Russian advance is unstoppable. This fact is being increasingly recognised even by the western media. A recent CNN article stated: “Outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine’s military is struggling with low morale and desertion.” 

The Ukrainian defences are clearly crumbling and may even be reaching the point of collapse. How long this will take is a matter of speculation. But the final outcome is not in doubt, and there is absolutely nothing the West can do to prevent it.

These ladies and gentlemen are eager to fight to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. They are determined to continue the war, irrespective of the terrible price being paid by the Ukrainian people whose interests they falsely claim to represent. 

As this prospect looms ever larger on the horizon, a mood of panic, bordering on hysteria, is gripping western governments.

Suddenly, a wave of alarmist statements is gushing forth from European political and military circles, all of them insisting upon the imminent approach of Armageddon. 

Nowhere have the warmongers achieved a more picturesque and original vision of the coming Armageddon than in Britain. The stupid blustering and bragging that has long ago substituted itself for the art of diplomacy, here increases in volume the more Britain’s real influence and power in the world approaches zero. 

Not long ago, the right-wing British tabloid, the Daily Mail, treated its readers to a most imaginative futuristic prediction of an overwhelming Russian attack on the West.

The right-wing British tabloid, the Daily Mail, treated its readers to a most imaginative futuristic prediction of an overwhelming Russian attack on the West / Image: Daily Mail

The forecast included references to Russian “tanks controlled by artificial intelligence” initiating the invasion. The accompanying map contained lurid details of Russian attacks on every conceivable European country (and several inconceivable ones).

This terrifying work of science fiction was evidently designed to cause the middle-aged, middle-class Tory readers of the Daily Mail to choke over their cornflakes, as they perused the morning’s issue. 

Sensational reports of this sort entirely ignore the fact that there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever of any Russian plans to attack any NATO country, and nor do they have any interest in doing so. The only countries in Europe that Russia is interested in are Belarus and Ukraine, which can never be allowed to join NATO. 

The whole thing is no more than the product of a morbid imagination, fuelled by panic and a feeling of impotence in the face of a Russia that, far from being defeated (as the Daily Mail and every other western newspaper had confidently predicted), has emerged from the Ukraine conflict enormously strengthened, both militarily and economically.

The aim of such articles is that, being scared out of their minds at the prospect of an immediate Russian invasion, their readers will be prepared to foot the bill for a very large amount of money to be handed over to the generals so they can have new and deadlier toys to play with.

Is this the start of World War III? 

For several decades following the Second World War, a state of uneasy equilibrium was maintained between the two great world powers: the USA and the USSR. This was a consequence of a rough equivalence in nuclear power between the two main antagonists.

However stupid and shortsighted the leaders of those countries may have been, they were not so blind as to fail to realise that a nuclear war would signify the total destruction of both sides, and possibly of the entire human race. This doctrine was known by the acronym MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction).

The end of the Cold War was supposed to usher in a new period of peace and prosperity in the world / Image: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Flickr

However, with the fall of the Soviet Union, suddenly the world entered into a new and highly unstable period. Relations between the powers became increasingly unpredictable. 

At first, all seemed to be sweetness and light. The end of the Cold War was supposed to usher in a new period of peace and prosperity in the world. Once the arms race was over, we were assured that there would be a so-called ‘peace dividend’, where wasteful arms expenditure would be replaced by useful productive investment. 

A direct clash between major powers was deemed negligible. This liberated vast resources: armies across the globe (not just in Europe) were downsized and turned their attention instead to things like counterinsurgency, which did not demand significant public spending.

But the euphoria did not last long. 

NATO embarked upon a remorseless march to the East, violating the promises that had been repeatedly made to the Russians that it would not extend past the territory of East Germany. It was the threat to include Ukraine in NATO that was the final straw that provoked the present bloody conflict in that tragic country.

Now the wheel has turned full circle. Once again, the threat of nuclear war is being placed on the agenda. But this does not necessarily mean that war is inevitable, or even probable. 

It seems that, despite everything, a final decision has not yet been reached. Frantic negotiations are taking place in Washington, where, as we have seen, serious doubts exist concerning the whole business. The warmongers are in a hurry because they fear that, if Trump wins the election in November, he may well decide to ditch Ukraine altogether, and even, possibly, to walk out of NATO.

It seems more than likely that the Americans will try all kinds of diplomatic trickery to extricate themselves from this dilemma. I gather that they have now presented the Ukrainians with a long list of questions, requesting clarification as to what their precise intentions are for the use of these missiles, should permission be granted.

Asked whether the US would allow weapons it supplied to be used to strike targets deeper inside Russia, Blinken said all use of weapons needed to be allied to a strategy.

He said one goal of the visit this week: “is to hear directly from the Ukrainian leadership, including… President Zelenskyy, about exactly how the Ukrainians see their needs in this moment, toward what objectives, and what we can do to support those needs.”

The difficulty is that Zelensky and his cronies have absolutely no answer to these questions. They are increasingly impatient and frustrated at what they regard as the dithering in Washington. That is why Zelensky was so keen to meet with Joe Biden, in the hope of getting things moving again.

Whether he succeeds or not is a matter of speculation. The tangled web of intrigue and counter-intrigue that passes for diplomacy in Washington is never easy to make sense of. But on past record, the Americans tend to initially say no to the Ukrainian demands, only to change their mind and finally capitulate to them.

The tail continues to wag the dog!

Whatever they decide, it will not make any fundamental difference either to the course of the war in Ukraine or its final outcome.

However, as you can see, the warmongers are never satisfied. They will continue their dangerous and reckless course to the bitter end, and the ordinary people will pay the bill in full. 

It is the fundamental duty of communists and all advanced workers and youth to fight against war and imperialism. The fate of the entire world and humanity itself is at stake.

The Revolutionary Communist International has called for a broad-based, international campaign to fight militarism and imperialism. To anyone serious about ending war, militarism and imperialism, be they an individual or an organisation, we say: let us work together – the time is now!

Capitalism must die, in order that humanity may live!

Down with the warmongers!

Stop supporting Israel and Ukraine! Immediate cessation of all aid and weapons to the reactionary warmongers Netanyahu and Zelensky! 

Down with NATO and American imperialism, the principal cause of wars and instability in the world today!

No to wasteful arms expenditure. For a programme of useful public works!

More houses, schools, and hospitals; not bombs, missiles, and other means of destruction!

Fight for the expropriation of the bankers and capitalists whose avaricious greed for profit is a constant cause of wars and crises.

For a harmonious socialist plan of production, based on the satisfaction of human needs, not the profits of the few and their reactionary wars.

Fight for a socialist world that will be free from the scourge of poverty, exploitation, wars, and oppression!

The only just war is the class war!